Easy money is harder than it looks

Every deputy assistant vice president has a tell

 

If you’re bad at something, better to find out early than late. Especially if not doing so comes with a price.

At Control Your Cash, it’s not exactly news that we think gambling is for idiots. Technically, we’d argue that poker isn’t gambling in the sense that keno and roulette are. Skill obviously factors into poker, at some level.

Therefore it stands to reason that the most successful poker players are the ones who learned it from an early age and applied themselves to their craft, right? Just like athletes?

Well, there’s one big difference. Serena Williams spent her childhood banging a ball against a wall (or sparring with the ready-made opponent one bed over), but she only paid for her lessons in sweat and bruises. It didn’t cost her anything out of pocket.

Improving at poker, on the other hand, costs money.

Yours truly moved to Las Vegas as an indestructible 20-something, armed with a mathematics degree from a fairly demanding college and convinced that he was going to hit every poker room on the Strip and use his logical mind to leave a gaggle of impoverished opponents in his wake. Sophisticated me would start off methodically, conquer the visitors and send them packing, move up to the locals, vanquish them, build my confidence and my winnings, then eventually go pro and make millions just for playing a game.

(NOTE: This is not a bad beat story we’re making you sit through, we swear. Nor will we tell you about the fish that got away, nor how our fantasy football team got screwed.)

On slow weekday afternoons, the casinos offer “free” lessons. The instruction is free, the stakes are real. I sat down at a learning table that held a dozen rube tourists who didn’t know a railbird from a kitty. The puzzlement in their eyes was all the incentive I needed. When one of them asked the dealer whether a full house beats a straight, I started salivating. That I knew barely knew the rules myself and didn’t know strategy at all was a non-issue.

I bought in for $20 and drew two low, unsuited cards. The flop* came up and I wagered $5, even though I knew I had close to the weakest hand at the table. There’s no point in sitting in a gambling hall and not gambling – I could have done that at home – so I gambled.

The dealer dealt the fourth community card. The card didn’t help my chances, but I placed a relatively gargantuan $10 bet. I went all-in with my remaining money on the fifth and final community card.

I held a pair of sevens. The best possible hand anyone could have held was a flush, and if anyone did, he wasn’t betting heavily enough for someone who had only a small chance of losing.

No one folded, including the two players who held worse hands than me. Our winner held a pair of pocket 10s. Most of the money she won in that pot was originally mine. She looked confused as the dealer pushed the chips toward her. “Really? I can take these? And exchange them for cash if I want? Or walk out of the casino with them and security won’t chase me? You sure?”

I wanted to stand up and scream at my fellow players. “Do any of you understand the concept of folding? Here’s how it works: you look at your cards and know you’re not going to win the hand, so you cut your losses before being obligated to wager more. Oh, and there’s something called ‘bluffing’, too. That’s when someone with a poor hand – me – bets so much that you assume he must have a great hand. Which I was doing. And none of you bought my bluff! Why the hell not? You people can’t possibly be so smart as to know that I was bluffing, given that you were all too dumb to fold. God, you’re exasperating!”

The dealer reminded me that if I wanted to be in on this next hand, I needed to cough up some more. Which would have been impossible. I walked out of the poker room dazed, trying to recalculate my steps. Could I have won that hand? No, because my idiot opponents wouldn’t have folded. Is every hand going to be like this? I always have to hold the best cards to win? Well, I’m not going to hold the best cards more often than anyone else will, so to win I’ll have to rely on my opponents’ psyches. But they don’t have psyches, they’re robots. And they weren’t even programmed to make intelligent decisions, just to bet and bet until the game ends. This is retarded.

I was right about that. It was.

Most players play to the death. Not out of bravado, but because they don’t know any better. Or they assume everyone else will, which means they have no choice but to mimic the crowd if they ever want to win a pot. To get past players like that and advance to the level where people bring math skills and psychoanalysis to the table, you have to be lucky enough to win more than chance would dictate. And that’s a price of entry that most of us shouldn’t be willing to pay.

Leave professional poker to the guys you see on ESPN2 late at night – the ones with the funny nicknames, horrible wardrobes, disjointed personalities and grotesque physiques. If you want camaraderie coupled with a chance to win money, invite your friends over and keep it amateur. In the long run, you’ll neither profit nor lose. And you won’t have to pay a cut to the house.

*Leaving much out, this refers to the first three of five cards the dealer deals face up in the middle of the table. Each player also receives two cards of his own, and creates the best possible five-card hand out of the communal five cards plus his own personal two cards.

**This article is featured is the Totally Money Blog Carnival #16-Easter Edition**

6 out of 8 people reading this are idiots

Come on, make his job easier

And hopefully, 8 out of 8 noticed that that headline is mathematically inelegant.

It’s Recycle Friday! And under normal circumstances, it’d also be tax day. Instead, you’ve got an extra 72 hours to mail your check this year.

What’s that? You’re not mailing a check? You’re getting a refund? Oh, you poor impressionable thing. Let us set you straight. Come with us back into the archives: a dimly lit corner with a table for two. You and us. We’ve got absinthe on ice (it was a gift from a sponsor) and Sade crooning on the Bose system. Now spend a little quality time with us as we break out a post from last February. Enjoy.

That means you, who’s looking forward to getting a tax refund on April 15. It might not be the dumbest thing you can do with your money, but it’s in the top 8.

Congratulations, getting that check means you let the government (definitely federal, probably state) enjoy your money all year long, as your employer dutifully paid the IRS every two weeks before you got your share. Of what you earned.

Remember that packet of papers the HR wench gave you when you started your current job? They included IRS Form W-4, which orders your employer to withhold some minimum amount of income tax from your paycheck. The implicit message from the government is you’re too stupid to budget, Citizen.

(You also can’t handle saving for retirement, and we don’t want you making too many decisions about your health care either. But those are issues for future posts.)

Many people, 75% of you according to some estimates, gladly choose to have their employers withhold more than enough to cover their taxes from each paycheck, thinking of this as “forced saving” in a gross misinterpretation of the term. The logic goes that rather than come up short on April 15, you can spend the whole year not thinking twice about your eventual tax bill. Best of all, when all those other suckers are lining up at the post office on Tax Day, not only will you not have to, you’ll be “receiving” money from the IRS. You outsmarted the system!

You didn’t.

You don’t want to get a big check from the IRS on April 15. You want to incorporate as a business, and send the IRS small checks on April 15, July 15, October 15 and January 15.

If you’re not an entrepreneur – i.e., if most of your income is still tabulated on W-2 forms rather than 1099 forms – you still don’t want to get a big check from the IRS on April 15. If anything, you want to cut them as big a check as possible.

“As big as possible” meaning not that you should give them all your money minus your living expenses, but as much of your tax bill as you can save until the last possible moment.

Look at it this way. Lots of merchants give cash discounts. The auto repair shop would rather have your money immediately than wait until the end of the month to receive it from MasterCard (after they subtract their cut, of course.) Continuing in that vein, the longer the merchant has to wait for your money, the more they expect. That’s why most invoices call for increased payments after 30, 60, 90 or 120 days, which is obvious.

The IRS has the second part of that down, being only too happy to assess penalties if you’re late.

So does that mean the IRS reduces your tax bill if you pay early?

(Sorry, broke a blood vessel from laughing too hard.)

If there’s no benefit to paying early, why on earth would you do it? Let the time value of money do its work. The longer you can hold on to it, the better it is for you.

Retailers use the annual ritual of receiving a check as a seasonal mating call. Come to our car lot, and we’ll double your IRS refund on the purchase of a new Camry! Turn your refund into a plasma screen!

A million years of human evolution, and our brains still haven’t developed to the point where they can instinctively appreciate the wisdom of deferring things beyond the obvious benefit.

Get the minimum deducted from each biweekly paycheck. (You don’t have to wait until the anniversary of your hire date. You can do this at work today if you want.) Take the difference between that and what you would have had deducted otherwise, and invest it in your 401(k). When it comes time to pay your taxes you’ll have enough to buy that plasma screen or Costa Rican vacation and then some.

If you’re not convinced by this point, then you have no willpower and will have to wait until we release a book called Let Someone Else Control Your Cash. Even worse, in the last few months we’ve seen just how hollow the phrase “full faith and credit of the (United States) government” goes.

For instance, the state of Hawai’i recently announced it was delaying its tax refunds until July 1. This isn’t to commemorate Canadian independence day, we’re guessing.

UPDATE: It isn’t. Make that August. Late August.

That leaves 49 solvent states. Well, except for Virginia. Oh, and Georgia, which kept its citizens waiting until mid-July and beyond last year. You knew New York would be a part of this too, right? How about Alabama? And North Carolina, you can step right up too. Etc.

States routinely budget in billions of dollars, making it easy to assume they have giant reservoirs of cash. They don’t. Californians pride themselves on having an economy that would be the world’s 8th largest were California a nation, but their state government doesn’t even temper the news when it announces it’ll be paying its creditors with IOUs.

America’s largest corporations by revenue are ExxonMobil, Wal-Mart, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Ford and General Electric. Imagine what would happen if any of them decided to pay vendors or employees with postdated checks. Somewhere between the customer boycotts and class-action suits, the state attorneys general would be among the first to publicly call these companies out.

But remember, it’s businessmen who are evil.

Hmmm…if the state, or IRS, doesn’t owe you money (that was yours to begin with) in the first place, you’ve denied the taxing authority the chance to defraud you or make you wait.

Chances are pretty good that in the next year, your municipality will float a bond issue for more money for your neighborhood firemen. Or initiate a ¼% sales surtax. You’ll vote yes, probably because of the residual effects of 9/11. A few months later, when the firemen have spent all the money on lasagna and mustache grooming and matching blue shirts for their daily trips to the gym, try not to draw a correlation to your delayed tax return. Which you shouldn’t be getting anyway, if you learn how to Control Your Cash.

**This article is featured in the Carnival of Wealth #35**

**This article is featured in the Yakezie Carnival Easter Sunday Edition**