Us 1, American Express 0

This week’s Friday recap comes from Credit Card Chaser, an erudite blog about…well, you can probably discern its topic of choice. Again, updated content in red, after the fold. But first, this brings up an aside to the aside. A year ago, we here at Control Your Cash were disappointed with our visitorship. (The quantity, not the quality. We enjoy all of you, except that Nicole and/or Maggie hoyden.) To get more visitors, we began writing guest posts for every personal finance blog with a higher Alexa ranking than ours. At the time, there were seemingly billions of such sites, and in reality, a few dozen. Credit Card Chaser was one of the first ones we submitted to. Now, our ranking’s higher than theirs. Not that this is a contest. Except it is.

**This post is featured in the Best of Credit Cards and Money Carnival-Shocking Credit Card Factoids Edition**

They call it "swiping" for a reason

The average American household receives a credit card offer every 10 days. (If you’re on Capital One’s mailing list, more like every 10 hours.) That average American household accepts a lot of those offers, and carries a balance of about $10,000 on an average of 12 cards, which is at least 10 too many. The average interest rate on credit cards is around 18%. Twenty percent of those cards are maxed out, and 35% of their holders pay a monthly late charge. (Those numbers have certainly changed by a basis point or two, but the details haven’t. If you’re not getting credit card offers, you’re living off the land in either the Bob Marshall Wilderness or the Alaskan Bush.)

A helpful rule in your economic life is to think about every transaction from the other party’s perspective. In this case, look at the handsome annuity that your credit card balance becomes in the eyes of the card issuer. And if you can find an investment that pays a consistent 18%, let me know. Not only will I refund you the price of my book, I’ll retire from creating personal finance books and put all my money in that investment instead.

If you couldn’t pay your bills in 18th century England, you didn’t get to “call and work something out,” nor could you sue in civil court because your bank made its credit card application so pretty and the envelope so easy to open that you couldn’t say no. Instead, you went to debtor’s prison. Sometimes it seems as though the threat of incarceration might be the only way to get modern Americans to spend with discretion. You’re carrying more debt now than when you were 15 and working at Hot Dog On A Stick. Ever wonder why?

Money is a commodity, but it’s also a tool. A tool that can help you build a house, a career, a life. Lose control of your money, and it’s the credit card issuer that’ll determine how hard your nails will be hammered and how frequently. So when you get a mailer that reads:

“Instead of 18.9%, apply now and we’ll give you a fabulously low rate of 14.9%!”

understand that means

“We’d like an investment that pays 18.9%, but then we’d also like it to rain beer. An investment that pays 14.9% is still fantastic, though. Almost no investment in the world can guarantee that, besides the atrocious saving habits of the American public.”

Never carry a credit card balance. Sacrifice a month’s groceries and beg for orange peels if you have to. Regard paying your bill in full every month as an imperative no less important than locking your door every time you leave home. Depending on what neighborhood you live in, doing the former could save you more money than doing the latter.

If you carry no balance, it costs the issuer to keep you around. You’re a low-revenue customer. (Or better yet, a non-revenue customer.) Let the irresponsible borrowers with the $25,000 balances pay the salary of the MasterCard CEO and put the fuel in VISA’s corporate jets.

With a zero balance, you can look at the issuer/borrower relationship in a new light. You’ll notice that credit card companies plug their low interest rates and balance transfer rates like they’re being eleemosynary bighearts. “Act now, and pay just 9.9% on balance transfers!”

In other words, if you’re irresponsible enough to have rung up debt on a competitor’s card, come to us. You’ve proven yourself to be a juicy fish. You’re actually far better than that, because a 50-pound chinook salmon can only be eaten once. We can feed off your bloated carcass again and again. The issuer is saying, “Hooked on cocaine? That’s for losers. Instead, give our pure crystal meth a taste and you’ll never go back.”

If you pay in full, annual percentage rates and interest-free introductory periods become meaningless. The credit card company has to profit off someone. Let it be the ill-prepared next person, not you.

The longer your record of paying your balance in full, the bigger the limits your issuer should allow. Most introductory credit cards will only let you charge up to, say, $3,000. After you’ve paid in full for a few months, they’ll increase your limits. This isn’t to reward you for being a profitable customer, as you’re anything but. It’s in the hope you’ll slip up, charge more than you can afford, and that’s when they’ve got you. Another debtor on the hook.

This is not a condemnation of credit cards, says a man who would use his Hilton Honors AmEx at the neighbor girl’s lemonade stand if she’d only accept it (62,760 points and counting!) (Now 81,320. But that changes monthly, and I’ve stayed at more Hampton Inns in the past year than I care to remember.) Credit cards are wonderful. They’re convenient, discreet, trackable, replaceable and inconspicuous in ways cash can never be. But if you use them without regard to their possible consequences, you’re the equivalent of a parent who thinks her baby’s nursery has just the right mix of temperature and humidity for storing loaded firearms.

Wow. That’s the least editing we’ve had to do on a reconstituted post since we started this CYC Flashback thing. The wisdom is thus timeless: carrying a credit card balance = sheer and unadulterated idiocy.

**This post is featured in the Totally Money Blog Carnival-Outrageous Tax Deduction Edition**

OMG THE MARKETS TOOK A HIT TODAY

No, they didn’t.

The markets are among the least volatile things in commerce.

EVERY trader looks like this, all the time. He could have just found out that his daughter got engaged and he'd still look the same way. "Crap, now I have to pay for a g.d. wedding."

Last Thursday, the Dow fell 11 points, which is a big enough story to lead the business news. Considering that the Dow opened the day at 12,037, that means it lost a crushing .09% of its value.

Granted, that means that at that rate, the Dow’s entire value would be worthless by May 2015.

By the same logic, the temperature in Fairbanks, AK was 85º on July 9 and -15º this morning. At that rate, by May 2015 Fairbanks will hit absolute zero, everything will turn solid and motion will stop.

These things are cyclical. Everything rebounds, and it usually doesn’t take that long.

Biggest Dow % losses of the last 75 years
October 19, 198722.6
October 26, 19878.0
October 15, 20087.9
October 18, 19377.8
December 1, 20087.7
October 9, 20087.3
October 27, 19977.2
September 17, 20017.1
September 29, 20087.0

The chance that 6 of the 7 biggest losses of all time would happen in the same 19-day annual period are 145,337 to 1.

Why was October 19, 1987, a/k/a Black Monday, such an outlier?

Two major reasons.

The market was unduly, maybe artificially high that morning, fueled by speculation that had kept the Dow rising all summer. The Dow was actually higher at the end of 1987 than at the start.

Also, it took the traders a while to get used to new technology. This was the first time that firms could program computers to take certain orders at certain prices. Not only that, but for the first time brokers could now process orders contingent on what level other stocks were selling at. A shareholder of railroad operator XYZ could order his broker to sell if railroad stock JKL fell to a certain price. We take this for granted now, but back then the traders were still only recently removed from executing every trade by hand.

What happened a week later?

Overworry. The traders were reeling from the previous week’s fall, plus all weekend long they were anxious to get to work and act conservatively – i.e. get into cash and not be part of the volatility. That works fine for one trader, but when everyone does it, you get the very volatility you were trying to avoid – the human equivalent of cows overgrazing on public lands, then ultimately going hungry.

Same thing. This one is attempting to negotiate with God, swearing to quit snorting coke once and for all if He'll only let the dry cleaner not notice the baggie he left in his suit pocket

What are the chances of 4 of the top 9 losses coming in the same 9-week period in 2008, during which we not only elected a new president, but had one of the two biggest ideological shifts in history between a president and his successor?

283,026,075 to 1. Almost the same as the chances of us choosing a person at random in the United States, and that person turning out to be you.

Does that mean we’re heading to an inevitable future of up-and-down stock prices? Not necessarily, and this will wrap up nicely with one more chart, below.

Look at the numbers. A 7% loss happens about once a decade. People frequently lose 7% of their savings balances – withdrawing $140 when you have $2000 in the account – and rarely feel aghast about it. How is that different than if it happens with any other investment (or in the case of the Dow, a representation of a mere 30 investments of the hundreds of thousands available)?

Oh, one more thing:

Biggest Dow % gains of the last 75 years
4 days after the 6th biggest loss11.1
15 days after that, i.e. 13 days after the 3rd biggest loss10.9
11 days after the biggest loss10.1
3½ months after the 5th biggest loss6.8

If you want to sell your position in a Dow index fund, and you’re worried that it isn’t at a high enough price, wait a couple of weeks.

Here are the top 20 advances and declines of 2010:

May 103.90May 20-3.60
May 272.85May 6-3.20
July 72.82June 4-3.15
June 102.76June 29-2.65
September 12.54February 4-2.61
December 12.27July 16-2.52
June 22.25August 11-2.49
June 152.10January 22-2.09
July 221.99May 4-2.02
August 21.99January 21-2.01
November 41.96April 27-1.90
September 241.86November 16-1.59
October 51.80May 14-1.51
February 161.68October 19-1.48
August 271.65June 22-1.43
November 181.57April 30-1.42
February 91.52June 24-1.41
January 41.50August 19-1.39
July 131.44August 30-1.39
May 121.38May 7-1.33

Just about every large movement (to the extent that these movements are large) is nullified by a comparable movement on the other side of the ledger. If this doesn’t convince you to buy-and-hold, and not obsess over daily market movements, nothing will.

**This post is featured in the cupid edition of the Carnival of Personal Finance**

and

**Baby Boomers Blog Carnival Eightieth Edition**