The single dumbest industry in the universe.

You can’t be retarded enough to play this. You just can’t.

 

Dumb from the customers’ perspective, that is. Ingenious from that of the industry itself.

Gambling. Dumber than alcohol, dumber than tobacco, dumber than network TV. At least drinking gives the user an inflated feeling of self-worth, and at least cigarettes make a statement (“I enjoy slowly killing myself while rendering the radius around me uninhabitable.”)

As for gambling, however, it just impoverishes its practitioners. Nothing else.

We’re not counting football bets between friends here, or a night of poker with the fellas. Those are zero-sum games. Unless you’re exceedingly horrible at reading an injury report or you insist on drawing to inside straights, you’ll end up neither making nor losing money in the long run when you bet among your friends. You’re essentially moving bills back and forth as a form of camaraderie.

Casino gambling is different, thanks to vig. That’s the cut the casino takes from every wager, which will ultimately bleed you dry. On the roulette wheel, the casino takes 3% of every bet. On straight sports wagering (i.e. a single game per bet), the casino takes 5%.

If someone offers you an investment that pays, say, 10%, would you take it?

The correct answer is “I don’t know.” A rate of return needs to be quoted with a time period for it to mean anything. If the investment takes 20 years to pay 10%, that’s .5% annually. You might as well leave your money in a savings account.

What if the investment pays 10% per day?

Say you invest $1. You’d have $1.95 by the end of the week, $17.45 by the end of the month, and $28 million in half a year’s time. Within 11 months you’d be earning more money than the rest of the world combined.

(That being said, when you read an interest rate quoted in a financial publication – or on any Control Your Cash post other than this one – assume the rate is annual unless otherwise specified.)

So an investment’s duration is always as important as the interest rate, with one exception – negative interest rates. These are always bad, for obvious reasons. If the reasons aren’t obvious, understand that having less money today than you did yesterday is something you want to discourage.

So let’s rephrase that earlier question:

If someone offers you an investment that pays, say, -3%, would you take it?

Which returns us to casino gambling. And for today’s example, the casino mainstay of keno. Keno, if you’re not familiar, is a type of lottery. Some states even incorporate it into their idiot impoverishment plans official lotteries.

In keno you pick up to twenty numbers from 1 to 80. The casino then draws twenty numbers, and you get paid depending on how many you got right. The game appeals to idiots for several reasons:

  • it requires zero skill.
  • it offers an outlet for superstition (“My granddaughter was born on the 17th day of the 11th month. I was 48 when I joined Oprah’s Book Club. I have 2 eyes on my head, which are currently looking at 77 collectible miniatures,” etc.)
  • it provides a margin for error (for instance, if you mark 6 numbers on your ticket, you get paid even if you get only 3 right. If you mark as many as 15 numbers, you get paid if you get only 6 right. What’s not to love about a game that still pays you even if you get more numbers wrong than right?

The vig on keno would be criminal, except that keno players engage in voluntary exchange with the casino and know the rules going in.

Say you play the simplest possible keno ticket; one where you select just one number. The chance of you getting it right is 4-to-1. Most casinos pay 3-to-1.

Which means you just found an investment that pays -25%.

We showed how an investment that pays 10% every 24 hours can make you legitimately rich within a few months, and richer than the rest of the world in less than a year.

Meanwhile, a keno ticket pays -25% in about 7 minutes. (The length of time the casino takes to draw its numbers, then set up for the next game.)

By the way, that one-number ticket is the safest (well, “least dangerous”) keno bet in existence.

Say you play a two-number ticket. The chance of getting both numbers right is about 17-to-1, and pays 12-to-1. Here the casino takes a 28% cut.

Like any good (for the casino) game, the dumber players are, the worse they get punished. Take the average keno player, who isn’t there to win a lousy $4 on a $1 one-number ticket, or even $12 on a $1 two-number ticket. Not when she can WIN UP TO $50,000!!!

One Nevada casino doesn’t require players to perform the toughest feat in keno – correctly picking all 20 numbers on a 20-number ticket – to claim its biggest prize. Instead, in a nod to ease and simplicity, this casino offers its biggest prize even to anyone who can just pick all 14 numbers on a 14-number ticket. Again, for a sweet $50,000 prize.

Care to guess what the odds are on getting 14 numbers right out of 14?

“Well,” you’re thinking, “Control Your Cash has already demonstrated that the casino takes a gigantic cut, somewhere in the 25-28% range. So the odds are probably around…65,000-to-1.”

Higher.

100,000-to-1?

Higher.

You’re telling me the casino actually keeps most of the money wagered on said tickets, paying the player less than half? That’s horrible.

Yeah, we know. Back to the original question: what do you think the odds are?

110,000-to-1?

Look, we try to keep these posts down to a reasonable length. Stop pussyfooting. The chance of getting all 14 numbers right is…

38,910,016,282-to-1.

It’s as if the casino said, “We chose a random person, somewhere on the planet, and got that person to roll a die. Who did we pick, and what number came up?” In other words, you’re going to lose.

We understand that the casino must take some cut for its expenses, like say the 3% it takes on roulette bets. If the casino were taking a similar cut here, then a winning $1 ticket should entitle you to Warren Buffett’s net worth. Or the entire market capitalization of Ford Motor Company. Or the gross domestic product of Costa Rica.

But instead, you get $50,000. Which makes the vig 99.9999%.

But hey, it’s only a buck. And you could win $50,000!!! Which is a big number! And aren’t all big numbers basically the same?

Below is the vig the casino takes on each keno bet. The Roman numerals refer to how many numbers you chose on your ticket. So for instance, if you play an 8-number ticket and get 5 right, the casino keeps 84% of your money. Happy reading.

IVig (%)
1 right25
II
2 right28
III
2 right86
3 right43
IV
2 right79
3 right87
4 right63
V
3 right92
4 right90
5 right47
VI
3 right87
4 right91
5 right71
6 right81
VII
4 right95
5 right84
6 right70
7 right80
VIII
5 right84
6 right78
7 right76
8 right92
IX
5 right90
6 right76
7 right80
8 right85
9 right99
X
5 right90
6 right79
7 right77
8 right86
9 right97
10 right100
XI
6 right80
7 right73
8 right84
9 right94
10 right99
11 right100
XII
6 right68
7 right79
8 right80
9 right92
10 right99
11 right100
12 right100
XIII
6 right86
7 right84
8 right83
9 right82
10 right96
11 right99
12 right100
13 right100
XIV
6 right87
7 right82
8 right85
9 right82
10 right95
11 right99
12 right100
13 right100
14 right100
XV
6 right91
7 right76
8 right85
9 right87
10 right94
11 right97
12 right99
13 right100
14 right100
15 right100

Our non-endorsement of the week

Little Boy : Penny Stock Chaser :: Hiroshima : Your portfolio

(“Undorsement”? “Exdorsement”?)

Put your money on the keno board at the Red Lion casino in Elko, Nevada before you do business with Penny Stock Chaser.

(NB: A few weeks after this post went up, Penny Stock Chaser went out of business. Its links are dead.) Unless you’re the kind of person who’s dumb enough to be swayed by exclamation points and graphics of money on trees, in which case you should give this company a try.

At least their name is fairly expository. Penny Stock Chaser recommends cheap equities for its customers, in the hopes that said companies will increase in value. At least the company’s one discernible product – its newsletter – is free. As best we can tell, Penny Stock Chaser makes all its money from the companies that allow Penny Stock Chaser to promote their stock.

A penny stock is one that trades for under a dollar a share – that is, its price is quoted in cents. Understandably, the cheaper a stock, the greater its potential to grow – both in absolute and relative terms. Holdings of a stock that trades at 3¢ could easily double tomorrow. Berkshire Hathaway, which traded at $100,899 Friday, is not going to reach $201,798 today.

This makes inherent sense. Take the hypothetical company whose stock trades at 3¢. Let’s even assume it’s a legitimate business, as opposed to an accounting construct developed by a wayward promoter, which is what many a penny stock represents. Say the stock is just a tiny bit desirable, in that some potential buyer is willing to offer more than the current asking price. Even if that bidder expresses his interest by augmenting his bid by the smallest amount possible – one penny – the stock will rise 33%. That’s not going to happen with a stock that trades in dollars or tens of dollars, at least not instantly.

The flip side, of course, is that to attract buyers to his holdings of a stagnant 3¢ stock, a seller would have to lower his price by…well, there’s not much room for him to maneuver here. The smallest possible lowering of the price results in a 33% loss in the company’s value, which means the stock has moved 1/3 of the way toward being completely worthless. Again, that’s not going to happen with any established company whose stock trades for a decently high price.

It’s tough to qualify greed. If you volunteer for an extra shift at your job, thus earning more money, does that make you “greedy”? Only in the eyes of the least repentant Marxist. But if you expect exponential riches for doing nothing more demanding than being lucky, then yes, you’re greedy. Just because it’s slightly more respectable (and credible) to admit to being a “stock ‘investor’” than a “roulette player”, doesn’t make the former any nobler. Most of us are cognizant enough to keep the human penchant for laziness in check. For the rest of us, there’s Penny Stock Chaser. Everything about this company is loathsome, including their radio commercials in which they exclaim that every month, some companies’ stocks “literally explode!”

Check out the company’s disclaimer, which confirms our worst suspicions. Penny Stock Chaser admits, albeit under penalty of law, that it receives payment (in stock) from several of the companies it touts. A legitimate firm (Vanguard, Smith Barney) doesn’t pull that kind of crap.

Penny Stock Chaser brags that its site has been “featured on MSN and Google”. Yes, because nothing advances the credibility of a company than being visible on a search engine. You know whom else you can find on Google?
Hitler!

Penny Stock Chaser also brags that it’s been featured on XM and Sirius. Apparently Penny Stock Chaser never noticed that the companies merged, nor that the merged companies’ logo is something a little more stylized than a hand-drawn dog.

We’re not convinced that Penny Stock Chaser isn’t really an experiment in public gullibility being conducted by a graduate sociology student somewhere. However, one giveaway is the company’s verbiage. Spend enough time on PennyStockChaser.com, and it’s clear that the web copy is being written by someone with the English skills of UFC commissioner Dana White. Either that, or the World Grammar Board changed the plural of company to “companys” and didn’t tell anyone. Here’s a grammatically correct but situationally erratic gem from the company’s “About” page:

“Our team has a total of 40 years experience in the stock market…”

4 lines later, just in case you weren’t paying attention:

“Combined we have over 40 years experience in the market.”

This has nothing to do with money, but here’s a gigantic red flag: any time a company brags that it has x combined years of experience, step back. Does that mean two career veterans, or 40 rookies? All it means is that someone in your company’s HR department knows how to add. Gold star.

Your local Wal-Mart has around 700 employees. With a conservative average of 3 years’ experience per employee, that means…wow, they’ve been selling discount items since before Christ was born!

Patronizing Penny Stock Chaser will give you the equivalent of “40 years experience in the market” faster than you wanted.

Making money is easy and fun! To wit, “We don’t waste time trying to uncover ideas that might move a wimpy 5-10% in a few months like most other guys. No, we’re looking at stocks that can explode 50+% or more in a matter of days!”

Look, no one likes being financially conservative. Of course a 50% return is more attractive than a 5% return. But in the same way, no one likes being unable to fly, either. We live in something called a real world. The chance of you losing money by dabbling in penny stocks is far, far greater than the chance of you profiting. Just because something’s possible doesn’t mean that a) it’s likely or b) you can do anything to improve your odds. Some people jump out of planes with malfunctioning parachutes and survive. Which is to be marveled at from a distance, rather than emulated.

Should the SEC step in and dismantle Penny Stock Chaser for promising flying unicorns and edible rainbows? No. Our society is still largely free, and it’s up to each individual idiot to decide how badly he wants to get screwed over. Should Howard Stern show a little self-respect and not voice Penny Stock Chaser’s embarrassing radio commercials? Yes, but that’s his business. You can assume he at least insists on being paid in something more fungible than stock tips.

Fortune favors the brave, not the idiotic.

(Looking forward to Penny Stock Chaser bragging that it’s now been “featured on Control Your Cash!”)