The Last Book Review (Part I of II)

Understand the cover image? It’s very subtle

 

After murdering Jim Randel’s The Skinny On trilogy, we figured no publisher would dare ask us to review a book. But someone did ask, and it’s with great trepidation that we agreed to review it. On the minus side, we expected nothing good. On the plus side, we needed blog post material.

We’ve reviewed several books, and the best one by far was written by a guy who didn’t learn English until his late teens.

Dan Thompson’s Discovering Hidden Treasures: Innovative Strategies For Creating, Retaining, and Transferring Wealth sounds more like the title of a lecture series at The Learning Annex, but let’s reserve judgment until we get to the meat of the book. Which only runs 99 pages and has a superfluous exclamation point on the title page.

99 pages sounds like it’d be easy to get through. If only. And by the way, the innovative strategies Thompson has in mind? Whole life insurance. Sorry to ruin the ending for you.
He doesn’t mention this until near the end of the book, and does whatever he can to euphemize it. Nor does the phrase “life insurance” appear anywhere immediately visible on his company’s website. If a man works that hard to obscure what his business does, and what “wealth strategies” he’s advocating, that tells you more than his book could.

Whole life insurance, in a paragraph: most life insurance policies are for a particular term – 20 years, whatever. Stay alive, and you threw 240 monthly payments down the toilet. Thus the insurance companies invented whole life insurance: the premia are more expensive, and the insurer invests the excess, creating a cash value that it offers to you should you ever want to cancel your policy. Oh, and if you die, your beneficiary doesn’t get the cash.

The problems with this are plentiful and clear. For the increase in what you pay, the insurer incurs no additional risk. That excess is pure profit, but not for you. If the cash value excites you, then you aren’t really insuring, you’re investing. And if you’re going to invest, there are better ways to do it than with a whole life policy that’ll probably pay around 2% annually.

You can’t win with life insurance. Your death, while a foregone conclusion, is hard to predict the date of. In fact the more accurately you can predict the date, the less likely you’ll be to find a company willing to insure you: and the higher the premia you’ll pay.

Oh yeah, Thompson’s book. That the vast majority of self-published authors can’t write is a given. He either didn’t use, or didn’t see the use for, an editor. Six lines in, and we’re already on our 3rd cliché (“…can change on a dime”, “if you don’t like the weather, wait 10 minutes” and “not a cloud in the sky.”) Writers, if you’ve heard it before, don’t use it. Yes, ideally a reader should buy a book for its content, but he still ought to be able to glide rather than wade through it.

The book starts with a first-person story. Thompson was in a thunderstorm as a kid and avoided crashing his bike into a building even though his brakes weren’t working. And – wait for it – our ECONOMY doesn’t have functioning brakes either! Thompson makes every amateur mistake:

  • using the passive voice
  • being indirect
  • capitalizing, hyphenating and pluralizing wherever the mood strikes him
  • writing a book without apparently ever having read one
  • not reading Stephen King’s On Writing. (If you have any aspirations to being an author, or even a blogger, buy it.)

Assailing the disjointed prose and prolixity of Discovering Hidden Treasures will take up most of the week, so let’s assail the book’s positions and arguments instead. Discovering Hidden Treasures starts off as ephemeral, the kind of book that will only be relevant during a recession – and only this particular recession. Thompson does find his voice in the first chapter when he stops reliving his childhood and starts talking about his topic of expertise. One thing about Thompson, he holds some unconventional beliefs. For instance, he claims that in the 1980s, “long-term” investments meant 1-3 years. When Thompson starts rolling, we get more clichés. Did you know we’re “not in Kansas anymore”? Thompson then helpfully explains where that comes from (The Wizard of Oz.) Which is appropriate, seeing as at least one of his observations comes from another world, or at least another decade:

Today you can barely buy a starter home for $105,000.

You can buy a pretty nice one in Las Vegas for that price. Or Fort Myers. Or Rochester, New York. Or dozens of other cities listed here. (Those are median prices, not entry-level prices.)

It isn’t pedantic to point out that lines like this would drive a more critical book reviewer to alcoholism:

…stocks have lost as much as 30%-50% or more from their highs.

Let’s break down that sentence. So stocks have lost 0-30% from their highs, or 30-50% from their highs, or more than 50% from their highs. In other words, they’ve lost some percentage from their highs. He could have replaced the 30% and 50% figures with 1% and 87%, or 14.3% and 61%, and it wouldn’t have made a difference.

We are seeing a reset in the stock market too, but where it stops nobody knows.

And all this time, we thought the stock market lands at exactly predictable levels on particular days. Thompson’s humor is atrocious, or possibly non-existent:

Many 401(k)s became “201(k)s” after the recent market decline.

It took a few seconds to realize this was an attempt at a joke. The book itself, alas, is not. Thursday we delve into what Thompson’s really selling and why you need to run away from it.

How to get a free, autographed, diamond-encrusted* book

Our quality-control department head

We couldn’t help but notice that most of the commenters on our site seem to have a political opinion or two. (Well, most of the commenters on our site are selling erection pills and ways to meet Russian women. Our spam filter is a fascinating place.)

So here goes. Both authors will sign a copy of Control Your Cash: Making Money Make Sense and make it yours if you come closest to guessing:

-the number of seats each party takes in the House of Representatives;
-same deal for the Senate.

The tiebreaker is the number of governorships by party. The 2nd tiebreaker would involve darts. Just leave a comment on this post, and do it uniformly so we can easily scan the entries, e.g.

House: 202 Democrats, 232 Republicans, 1 other
Senate: 52 Democrats, 48 Republicans
Governors: 19 Democrats, 30 Republicans, 1 other

Again, we’re looking for totals. If you write something like “The Republicans will gain 57 seats in the House, and…” you might technically win but we’ll dog-ear a couple of pages just to ruin the resale value of the book.
Ah, the book. Here’s a sample chapter: bit.ly/CYCFree
And here’s what the Amazon reviewers have to say about Control Your Cash: amzn.to/cRd8md

We’ll mail the winner’s copy out once everything’s official, so you’d better hope we don’t have another one of these. Good luck. Contest closes TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 1 at 4 a.m. Pacific.

*Diamonds are metaphorical only.

What do numbers and humans have in common? The irrational ones predominate.

This week marks the 23rd anniversary of Light Gray Wednesday. On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 23% of its value. Alas, no Goldman Sachs employees jumped out of their windows and ended up literally on Wall Street, which would have been awesome.

Over the course of one shocking trading day, the typical individual pension fund went from having 20 years worth of reserves to having 15. Stock options were instantly rendered worthless. Frightened American seniors started pricing cat food brands (Fancy Feast Classic Savory Salmon, 39¢ for a 3-oz. can.) High school juniors started downgrading their aspirations and applying to state colleges. The kids’ parents started smoking off-brand cigarettes – even the non-smoking parents – and saving up the frequent-buyer points. President Reagan and Congress were under pressure to do something to stop the carnage (more on this later.)

The first 100-point drop in the Dow began early in the morning: and this was back when the index itself was at barely 2000, less than one-fifth of where it stands today. Panicking investors copied the lead of previously panicking investors, selling their shares and forcing stocks to drop another 100 points by lunchtime. People on the West Coast woke up, assessed the devastation and followed suit. By the time investors in Honolulu and Anchorage were in a mood to eat breakfast, they’d seen their portfolios blown apart.

The drop wasn’t confined to the United States, nor did it originate here. It hit our shores after already overwhelming Hong Kong, not unlike Pai Gow. Once Hong Kong’s market crashed, so did the markets in Australia, then Western Europe. (An ancillary point: one of the biggest differences between international commerce of a generation ago and that of today is that back then, there was a 6000-mile swath ranging from Singapore to Tallinn that had no stock markets to speak of.) That very month, R.E.M. released “It’s The End of The World As We Know It”, a clear choice for the opening track on the soundtrack to the financial apocalypse that we were all going to have to face.

Who or what to blame? Favorite culprits included:

-computers. Those newfangled machines were blindly selling stocks, often to each other with negligible human input;
-an anti-inflation policy in the United States, though Europe had nothing similar and even if it did, something as gradual as that wouldn’t explain such a sudden drop in one day.

The real answer to what caused the crash is “it doesn’t matter.” What no one mentions is that within 2 days, the market had regained the vast majority of its losses. On net, the Dow actually rose that year. The relevant politicians at the time were either wise enough to know – or too busy to worry over the fact – that you can’t legislate opinions. Which is exactly what stock prices are.

So many of the indicators that we use to measure our prosperity are subjective, but especially the Dow. If you select a random public company, read its financial disclosures, and examine its income statement and balance sheet, a fair and reasonable stock price ought to correspond to that data. But that’s not necessarily the case. A profitable oil company with a rich history (BP) can suffer one huge setback and watch its market cap tumble. An over-the-counter company with almost no assets and no finished projects (Prime Sun Power) can trade at tens of thousands of times earnings, just because of its ecologically correct name.

The point? If you see unjustifiable movement, step away and breathe for a second. Investors sold off on the afternoon of October 19, 1987 for no better reason than investors were doing the same thing that morning, too. Playing lowball was, to put it simply, a fad. Just like bidding up the prices of online toy retailers would be 13 years later.

Collective rationality, or some form of it, usually wins out. In the case of Black Monday, it took almost no time at all for that to happen. The crises are rarely as important as the mundane, day-to-day activity, and the extremes rarely represent any market’s true level. Think about that when mortgage rates and home prices hit another nadir this week.