5.3 billion birds in the hand

A bird in the hand

We had the hardest time keeping the little freak still for the picture

Is the ability to recognize opportunities a characteristic from birth, or a teachable skill?

Most of us miss out on most opportunities, by definition. Otherwise we all would have sold our houses in 2008, invested the proceeds in Cost Plus stock, then bought the houses back this fall for pennies on the dollar. You didn’t, which is why you’re still reading personal finance articles and trying to make sense of the world.

Are you familiar with Groupon? Not a ridiculous question – we asked a fairly with-it 24-year old woman about it the other day. She’d never heard of it. The company’s clever name gives you a hint as to how it works. You enter your location at Groupon.com. Every day, in every city Groupon serves, the company pairs with a local retailer to offer a limited-time deal. This isn’t 10¢ off a jar of lemon curd, either. Current Groupon deals include $49 for a 1-hour facial, $10 off a ticket to a Stanford University basketball game, $50 of food at the Pewter Rose Bistro in Charlotte, NC for $25, etc. The catch is that a certain number of people have to sign on or the deal won’t go into effect. (That number is posted for each deal, along with the number of remaining people needed to activate the deal.)

The mutual benefit here is obvious. Customers save money if enough of them exist to activate the coupon, but lose nothing if there aren’t (membership is free for both customers and businesses.) Meanwhile, the merchant gets guaranteed customers who went out of their way to show an interest in buying the product. If too few people sign up to activate the deal, the merchant loses nothing (and gains information – either “we need to offer a sweeter deal” or “what we’re selling is so bad that no one’s interested.”) Groupon keeps half the coupon revenue.

Like Twitter and eBay, Groupon is the kind of enterprise that makes a rational person kick himself for not thinking of the idea first. The website is sleek, informative, and easily navigable, particularly on a phone. Even the descriptions of the deals are entertaining to read – a staff of moonlighting comedy writers and stand-up comics creates them. Groupon started a little over 2 years ago in Chicago, offering discounted pizzas at one particular joint. Today, the company has 35 million members in 250 cities on 4 continents. It employs 3,000 people, most of them in sales. When the venture capitalists came calling, Groupon management stood at attention. Liberal estimates say the company will take in $350 million this year. It’s hard to imagine that Groupon’s expenses are more than a tiny fraction of that. Back in April – 1/3 of Groupon’s life ago – the company was making $1 million weekly. Groupon founder Andrew Mason has lofty ideas – he claims that he wants to do for local businesses what Amazon did for online retail.

Mason might be a visionary, but his business acumen is curious. A few weeks ago, Google offered $5.3 billion (excluding incentives) for Groupon. That’s about what Sirius XM is worth, but Groupon makes money. Whether the Google offer was in cash or Google’s resilient stock, Mason and his partners could have gotten ultra-rich faster than just about anyone in the history of commerce.

Mason turned Google down, because he’s insane.

Groupon is a great idea, and one that’s easy to copy – just ask LivingSocial, CrowdSavings, Tippr or one of Groupon’s hundreds of other new competitors. LivingSocial already has almost as many visitors as Groupon, with a website that’s hard to distinguish from Groupon’s at times. Groupon didn’t just get big quickly: it reached its perihelion shortly thereafter. Sure, there are millions of non-members to convert, but why should they patronize Groupon when its competitors are offering the same thing free? The competitors are increasing exponentially while the potential customer base grows arithmetically. It’s a Malthusian problem for a different century, only this one doesn’t involve cannibalism and starving orphans. Besides, how many discounted spa treatments can the world handle? (Groupon’s clientele is overwhelmingly 30ish and female.)

Mason’s strategy, at least as he tells it, is to do an initial public offering and turn his company over to ordinary investors by 2014. By which time we’ll have discount-searching polycarbonate chips implanted in our heads. Seriously, at the rate the number of his competitors is growing, Mason could have 2000 Groupon knockoffs to contend with by then. The greater the dilution, the less interest Google or anyone else will have in Groupon’s targeted customer information. Groupon management let a winning lottery ticket expire in the name of future aspirations. The iron is almost cool to the touch as this point, and Mason still isn’t striking it. Check back in a few months when another potential suitor makes a low-9-digit offer for Groupon. If that.

And if someone offers you what seems like a ridiculously high price for something, don’t double down on your own good fortune. Take the freaking money.

**This post is featured in the inaugural edition of Totally Money Carnival**

GUEST POST: 6 Habits Of A Frugal Shopper

Every week, we get solicitations for guest posts. 99% of them are dreadful. Some are even belligerent. None of them are from someone who’s actually been to our site.

Until now. Mr Credit Card runs Ask Mr Credit Card, and has good opinions. By which we mean he largely agrees with us, which makes sense, because our opinions are rooted in truth.  We assume he’s a Brit, given that he doesn’t punctuate “Mr.” He also writes in the third person, like us…er, like the Control Your Cash authors. Anyhow, take it away, Mr Credit Card:

Today, Mr Credit Card is going to highlight some habits of a frugal shopper. Though he reviews and recommends the best credit cards, he also believes that unless you are frugal and pay all your bills on time and carry no debt, you have no business carrying a credit card. Here are some of his tips to pay less than “full retail” prices.

Everybody loves a good deal. But we shouldn’t buy stuff just because we can get a good deal or there’s a sale going on. Instead, we should only buy things we really need. But even then, you should always find ways to pay “below retail”.

1. Ignore the “original price” I can’t stand how most stores mark down prices. The big department stores are the worst here as they will always show an original price or a Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price that is much, much higher than the lowest price. Often I see 3 or even 4 prices, suggesting that it’s marked down several times. Who cares? Do you know what you can do with your “suggestions”? The only price that counts is the price you pay.

(Ed. Note: Any man who’s taken part in the following useless conversation, raise your hand: Q: “Honey, how much did that cost?”  A: “I got it on sale.”)

2. Always Compare Prices Just because an item is marked down, that doesn’t mean it’s even a good deal. I found what I thought was a good deal on Amazon the other day. No other retailer I searched for had this cordless phone system at a lower price after tax and shipping. Even eBay was a bust. The next day, I found the phone system in Costco for almost half of what Amazon was selling it for. Research all your major purchases. This was the exception, as I usually find lower prices at Amazon or eBay than most retail stores, but you never really know. EBay

(Ed. Note: How do you capitalize “eBay”, assuming you do, when it starts a sentence? Curse this stupid phenomenon of brand names that start with lowercase letters and have medial capitals.)

is especially good for low-price, highly-marked up items like computer and electronic cables and accessories. I can always find a cell phone recharger for $5 that costs $20 at the dealer.

3. Always Ignore Credit Card Rewards Credit cards rewards are great, but only if you pay off your balance in full every month. Even then, you can still be tempted to spend more. One of the funnier lines in a movie I once saw was when the ditzy teenager was questioned as to whether her parents mind her spending so much on her credit card. She replies, “So what, they’re getting frequent flier miles.” That statement perfectly encapsulates the entire premise of reward cards. The idea is to get you to spend more in order to earn your reward, which is usually worth 2% or less than your purchase. If you can’t understand why this is a bad idea, you should never, ever have a reward card.

(Ed. Note: Full disclosure, your regular blogger has an American Express HiltonHHonors card. Only because it had no annual fee and I stayed in Hilton hotels a few times a month anyway. The card gives me free hotel stays without giving me incentive to change my behavior: if I don’t have enough points for a free stay at the $89 Hilton Garden Inn while the Holiday Inn Express across the street is renting rooms for $79, you can probably figure out where I’ll stay.)

4. Pinch Twenties, Not Pennies I suppose if you have unlimited time on your hands, you can make a career out of clipping coupons. In fact, there seem to be people who do just that. For the rest of us with a job and/or a life, you have to prioritize where you save money. Go for the big scores. Spend your time and effort saving on big things.

5. Make Sure You Are Not Just “Saving Money” On Something You Really Don’t Need The whole idea behind coupons is not to let you spend less, but to make you spend more. When you see a coupon for some product, ask yourself if it was something that you were going to purchase anyway. If it was, great. If not, forget it. Ask yourself if there aren’t less expensive alternatives. Perhaps you can get the same item for less on eBay or Craig’s List?

6. Always Compare Total Prices We live in a world with little price transparency. Book a rental car if you want to see how your bill quickly becomes twice the price of the rental itself. Telecommunications companies are close behind with all of their tax recovery charges. Hey, I pay taxes too! Can I subtract a “tax recovery fee” from your bill? Even a straightforward online purchase might include tax and shipping.

Our Anti-Couple Of The Year

Control Your Cash: Anti-couple of 2010

75 is the new 125

In 5 weeks we’ll give out our Man Of The Year award. There’s no formal set of criteria for it, but it’s fair to say that we give it to someone who does a lot with less than a lot.

Nor are there formal criteria for nomination, but we recently discovered the least qualified candidates in existence (non-government category.)

If you read Control Your Cash with any regularity, you’ll know that our opinions on gambling are unambiguous. Don’t.

Meet Violet and Allan Large of Truro, Nova Scotia, who spent $11 million of their gambling winnings in 3½ months. And people are commending them for it. If you needed any further proof that Canadians are monotonal, obsequious milquetoasts who enjoy being acted upon, this is it.

The Larges played Canada’s iconic Lotto 6/49, in which you pick 6 of the first 49 positive integers. Odds of winning are thus 13,983,816 to 1. The Larges nailed it and took home $11.2 million. Canadian lottery jackpots aren’t subject to tax, the eminently reasonable argument being that you paid the tax when you bought the ticket.

Ma & Pa Large “took care of family first”, according to an amateurishly written story that doesn’t specify how many family members that entails. The story also claims the Larges “don’t gamble”, leaving open the question of what activity buying a lottery ticket should be classified as. Then, the Larges cut checks (excuse us, “cheques”) to firemen, churches, hospitals, cemeteries (cemeteries need money?), the Red Cross, the Salvation Army, etc.
If a pro athlete did this with jewelers instead of cemeteries, hack sportswriters across North America would proselytize against it. Bob Ley would devote an ESPN Outside the Lines special to it. But if some astonishingly dull couple does it, people want to beatify them.

The Larges kept $200,000, or $100,000 apiece. Let’s assume Violet dies in the next couple of years: she doesn’t have the hairstyle of a woman with a lot of time left. Is the remainder really going to be enough to keep everyone comfortable? Self-made multimillionaire Paul Stanley put it best:

“ALRIGHT! I KNOW EVERYBODY’S HOT! EVERYBODY’S GOT…ROCK AND ROLL PNEUMONIA! SO LET’S CALL OUT – DR. LOVE!”

Sorry. He did say that, but more to the point, he said:

“The best part about having money is not having to worry about having money.”

Contrast that with Violet Large:

“What you’ve never had, you never miss.”

The self-contradictory old kook borrows her philosophy from ancient bromides and fortune cookies, adding that “Money can’t buy you…happiness.” If the recipients of her largesse share that belief, they aren’t acting as if they do.

Were Control Your Cash an ordinary personal finance site, this is the part of the post where the author would write, “Would you give away $11 million? What would you do if you won the lottery?”

We don’t care. Here’s what you should do.*

Sell liabilities. Buy assets. No matter how much money you have, that never changes.

At least the Larges don’t appear extravagant. (No, really, they don’t. In case you didn’t notice.) We can only hope, maybe assume, that they own their house free and clear. And it’s true that staring at each other across the kitchen table costs little.

If you’ve got any kind of overarching debt that incurs large interest, and you come into a windfall, pay that debt off in its entirety. If you need the cash to capitalize on an investment with a larger return than the return you’re giving the lender on whatever it is you’re borrowing, then maintain the status quo if it involves a spread you feel comfortable with. In other words, if you finance a $50,000 car at 11%, but you’ve got $50,000 in an investment with a guaranteed 12% return, enjoy your annual $500 profit. But such examples are rare in the real world. When you’ve got the cash, it’s almost always better to pay the debt off, start again at 0 instead of at -11%, and start looking for an investment that pays you more than a net 1%. Which shouldn’t be hard to do.

And if you’re so devoid of ambition that you can’t think of a single exotic place to visit or an experience to enjoy that requires you to spend a few bucks, join the Larges in Nova Scotia and together you can watch the ground freeze.

P.S.: They’re still buying lottery tickets.

*Someone, possibly that disagreeable Nancy woman from that one blog, is reading this and saying “How dare those arrogant people tell us what we should do with our hypothetical money.” Fine, we’ll refund your blog-reading fee.