A cupcake IPO? Seriously now?

 

 

Perfect for those weekends in Vegas with nothing to do

Yeah, this cupcake’s not feeling well and won’t be able to make it in today

 

NOTE: this post originally ran, in a slightly less libelous version, on Adaptu.

Intermediate readers, skip the next paragraph.

IPO = initial public offering. Refers to a formerly privately owned company finally making its shares available to whomever wants to buy them. The company now trades on a stock exchange and its financial statements are now public record. The biggest American IPO in history (not counting companies that went into receivership, became wards of the taxpayers and reemerged) was that of VISA in 2008. The heretofore private company opened on the New York Stock Exchange at $64.35/share. It peaked at $96.59 last April, and sits around 75 now.

On second thought, skip this paragraph too.

Somewhat evidently, every company has to do its IPO at some point. An IPO is obviously a big deal: and for many companies’ principals, who own options to buy the stock at a certain discounted price and will profit the second the company goes public, an IPO is as good as it’s ever going to get.

A few weeks ago, boutique cupcake retailer Crumbs Bake Shop went public. “Boutique”, by the way, is a French word meaning “small, but with cachet among urbanites and various other pretentious fools.”

Crumbs has 24 retail stores in the New York tri-state area, 6 in Los Angeles, 3 in D.C. and its environs, and 1 in Chicago with 3 more New York-area stores in the works. In New York and Los Angeles, they deliver to your door. The company is a public relations phenomenon, renowned as the creator of the Baba Booey cupcake (peanut butter frosting, chocolate cream cheese frosting, peanut butter chips) and the Artie Lange cupcake (chocolate cream cheese frosting, Vicodin filling, served in an edible wrapper doused in lysergic acid diethylamide).

Still, a company that can get Howard Stern’s attention is not necessarily a company worth investing in. If you’re old enough to remember Outpost.com, you know what we mean. Unlike VISA, Crumbs isn’t an internationally recognized name with decades of results behind it. Nor is it Microsoft (IPO 1986), nor Google (2004), with a palpable potential for growth and a revolutionary and established product line. Use whatever corporate buzzword you want with cupcakes, but “game-changer” doesn’t really fit.

Okay, what about its company history?
It barely has one. Crumbs was founded in 2003 by a husband and wife team – she’s a lawyer, he’s…well, here’s the relevant sentence from his official bio:

Jason started Famous Fixins, a manufacturer of celebrity licensed products, with such products as Britney Spears bubble-gum and NSYNC lip balm as well as products with high profile names such as Derek Jeter, Mike Piazza and Sammy Sosa.

We could go for a cool, refreshing, sturdy, gluten-free, Mac-compatible fair trade Sammy Sosa product right now. How about you?

Does it have goodwill – the accounting term that refers to intangible value beyond its assets?
Nothing you can quantify. To we middle Americans, Crumbs doesn’t even register. We’d even heard repeatedly about their novelty cupcakes, but couldn’t tell you the company’s name. The one New York cupcakery we did know the name of is Magnolia Bakery, and only because of that one Saturday Night Live bit.

Does the company have a competitive advantage that no one can replicate?
That depends. Do you have a kitchen and a couple of mixing bowls?

Crumbs’ IPO hit the ground with a valuation that now leaves it around $58 million. Granted, ExxonMobil has more than that in its petty cash envelope, but $58 million is a decent amount for a company that until this point has had only 2 visible owners.

The markup on a cupcake is enormous. Crumbs retails its cupcakes for $4.50. That’s each, not for a 4-pack. With that much profit baked into every bite, the company has designs on opening 300 more stores.

Making cupcakes can be profitable, maybe even in the long term. But a $58 million business? Here are a couple of schools of investing thought, each encapsulated in a single sentence:

You have to look at a company’s income, shareholders’ equity, how much debt it’s carrying and how much cash flows through it before you invest in it.
Control Your Cash

 

We go to Starbucks every day, so I buy Starbucks stock.
Barbra Streisand

It’s safe to say that Crumbs is counting on people who subscribe to the latter belief to help it grow into maturity.

But even Starbucks sells more than mere coffee. At one point the company went so far as to publicly consider itself the primary place to exist when you’re neither at work nor at home. The Wi-Fi and the music attest to that, and it appears to be working. Besides, when Starbucks went public it was far more entrenched than Crumbs is today.

It’s not that you can’t sell a capricious, semi-serious item in a recession – Altria and Molson Coors are both doing fine, and it’s slightly less harmful for society that overextended people stuff their faces with Baba Booey cupcakes rather than cigarettes or alcohol. But it’s hard. Let the lawyer and the manufacturer of celebrity licensed products build the business themselves.

We give the Crumbs founders our wishes for success. What we’re not giving them is our money.

McKesson has a $21 billion market cap and is trading at close to a 12-year peak. They sell payroll software to doctors, and prepare health claim management forms. You’ve never heard of them, which means they’re really underground. If that’s not hip and trendy, we don’t know what is.

**This article is featured in the Carnival of Personal Finance #314**

My bank! My precious bank!

Presumably, they had at least $4,250,000 in the vault

What do I do if my bank fails?

Relax. You’re not going to lose your life’s savings. Worst case, you’ll only have a quarter-million dollars left in each of your accounts. Thanks to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, which guarantees you that much when it shuts down a bank. Notwithstanding the debate of whether it’s the federal government’s business to protect depositors from insolvency, the FDIC hasn’t missed a depositor guarantee since its founding 77 years ago. Yet when a bank goes under, people panic – as opposed to panicking before the bank goes under, which would seem like a more appropriate time to lose one’s composure. Many people, for whatever reason, think that among all commercial enterprises it’s banks and banks alone that should be immutable and constant.

What distinguishes a bank from a clothing store or an oil-change place? A bank is a business like any other, selling a service (loans) while trying to do so for more than it costs to stay in business. If the bank fails, it liquidates its inventory and sells it to the highest bidder. Just like a failed sporting goods store or furniture retailer.

So you read that there were 154 bank failures in 2010?

Guess how many restaurant failures there were. You have to guess, because no one keeps a nationwide tally.

But banks are different! They have our money!

Actually, they loan most of it out, but that’s beside the point.

When a bank fails, the people who get hurt the most are the same people who suffer the hardest when any business goes under – its owners. If you’re conditioned to think of the “owner” of a business as someone who’s already rich and is now out one toy, think again. Most small businesses have one, maybe two owners, whose lives are inextricably tied to the fortunes of the business. Sure, the employees might now be jobless, but – they were never invested in the business in the first place. Lose your job, and that’s all you lose – not your life’s savings, not the active nest egg you were building. If you get laid off, your 401(k) goes with you. You do know this, right? You don’t? You really need to read Chapter IV of the book.

Homo sapiens embraces technology, but as a species. There are plenty of outliers – non-adopters who keep their money in something non-institutional. Millions of people, some of whom live a couple doors down from you and/or share your DNA, still don’t trust banks and think the internet is every bit as futuristic as interplanetary travel. Not all of those people lived through the Depression, either.

Still, 154 banks is a lot.

Really? How many banks do you think there are in the United States?

About 8400.

98% of which didn’t fail last year.

————————————————————-

Addendum! It’s like 2 posts in one today!

It’s great when people look at absolute numbers when they should look at relative ones, or vice versa. Heck, even the concept of absolute vs. relative is too much for most people to handle.

Example: Did you know that the Avocado Marketing Board estimates that Americans ate 69.6 million pounds of guacamole on Super Bowl Sunday?

Wow! 69.6 million! If that were money, it’d be more than I’d see in a lifetime! If it were people, it’s…more than would fit in any stadium I’ve ever been in, that’s for sure! 69.6 million! That’s like – the number of grains of sand on all the beaches of the world, right?

If 2/3 of the country watched the game, then that’s 5 1/2 ounces of guacamole per person. (Assuming no one ate guacamole that day and didn’t watch the game. A subset that might include just Tim Ferriss and Rosie O’Donnell, perhaps.) Furthermore, has any bowl of guacamole ever been worn down to the nubbin? Of course not. Any party you’ve ever been to, or held, the guacamole goes mostly uneaten. So it’s probably closer to 2 ounces consumed per person. But OH MY GOD 69.6 MILLION! I FEEL FAINT makes for a ostensibly remarkable superlative. Why? Because the moment a number becomes hard to visualize, people start losing control. You’ve never seen 69.6 million of anything, so it stands to reason that 69.6 million pounds of guacamole is a number sufficiently large to cover the entire contiguous United States 4 miles deep in viscous and tangy chartreuse goodness.*

So 69.6 million pounds (or as we say in Largest-Convenient-Unit Land, 34,800 tons) isn’t a big deal. It’s a very workaday deal. Just like 154 bank failures in a country with more banks than it knows what to do with.

*At least 4 people reading this, all of them female, are unsure if this is sarcasm. They’re wondering if that’s indeed enough guacamole to fill that big a volume, but see it as a math problem and have decided not to get involved. “If McFarlane’s playing with our minds, it’s probably to compensate for his deficiencies in other areas.”

**This article is featured in the Carnival of Personal Finance #313**

**This article is also featured in the Yakezie Carnival-Happy Father’s Day Edition**

**This popular article is featured in the Baby Boomers Blog Carnival Ninety-Seventh Edition**

Stop digging

Assuming you're responsible enough to care about avoiding something like this, read on.

This Recycle Friday, we whip out a particularly memorable post from last summer. It originally appeared on Christian Common Cents, but Jews and Mormons can get something out of it too. (We kid!)

If you sell your house short, you can save yourself the trouble of damaging your credit rating worse than you would by holding onto it. Also, the quicker you can absolve yourself of a long-term obligation like a mortgage, the sooner you can get back to building your wealth and paying down debt so you can one day rejoin the ranks of the homeowning. It may seem interminable at the time – “I’ll never get out of this, by the time I can afford a house I’ll be old and/or dead” – but it isn’t. When you’re in the 1st grade, the idea of graduating high school seems so far-fetched as to be impossible. To a 6-year old, you might as well be waiting for another ice age to come and go. But you have the perspective of an adult. We know of one 30-something couple who bought too much house at the top of the market, were forced to sell short, lived in an apartment, and a brief 4 years later are looking to close on a home of their own once again. This isn’t a literary construct – these people really exist. They own a cat. We’d include a picture if they’d let us.

Anyhow, let’s see how that old post stacks up:

What’s a short sale?

You buy a house. Years later, you can’t make the payments, so what do you do?

You can just stop paying, and the lender will eventually file an eviction order with the local constable. Depending on where you live, you can either laugh at the order or heed it. For the satisfaction of sticking it to the man for a few weeks, you’re out the price of your house and your credit rating, which will never recover. Which means you’ll never be able to get a credit card, not even from Capital One. What’s in your wallet? Nothing.

The less opprobrious and more financially savvy way to dishonor your contract is to sell your house short. Which involves going to the lender and pleading for mercy.

There’s something important to remember here, both to keep things truthful and to avoid embracing the mentality of a victim. When you ask the lender to accept a short sale, you’re not coming from a position of supplication just because you’re just an average Joe trying to get by while the heartless lender sits back in his corner office, laughing at your misfortune so hard that his monocle falls out and lands on his spats. You’d signed a contract that required you to cut monthly checks. There was no clause in the contract that read “if borrower loses his job, loads up on Fannie Mae common stock, gets divorced, has triplets, starts buying cigarettes by the carton, falls in love with a stripper or buys a boat, contract is void and subject to renegotiation at a lower rate.”

A little quantification might make this easier. Let’s use simple numbers. Five years ago, you bought a house for $150,000. You got a 30-year mortgage at 6%, which was average at the time. Fixed-rate*, of course. You put 20% down so you could avoid having to pay private mortgage insurance, the premium that lenders charge to borrowers whom they figure have lots of incentive to stop making payments if money gets tight. Which means this is your monthly payment:

.06 is your interest rate. 12 is the number of payments in a year. 360 is the number of payments over the life of the loan. 1 is the loneliest number that you’ll ever do.

Oh, stop whining. Yes, it’s math. The very calculator that comes with the computer you’re reading this on can solve it easily. Divide your interest rate by the number of months in a year, add 1, take to the -360th power, subtract from 1, multiply by the number of months in a year, divide into your interest rate, multiply by the amount you borrowed. DONE!

This makes a monthly payment of $719.46. Which doesn’t seem onerous for some people, but if you can’t pay it, you can’t pay it.

When you signed that mortgage, you committed to pay $259,005.83 in equal monthly installments over the next 30 years. Say you’re five years in and you can’t make the payments. You’ve already paid $43,167.60, assuming you haven’t missed any payments, which you probably have. That leaves $215,838.23. Selling short means that if you can’t make your payments, you tell your lender you’re willing to sell your house at a loss.

For a short sale to make sense, your house had to have depreciated. If that’s not obvious, consider that if you couldn’t make the payments, you could just sell the house for at least what you paid for it and not come out behind. Say property values in your area have fallen 30% since you bought the house. Your house is now worth $105,000. With the lender looking over your shoulder, you sell it for that much. What happens?

Well, the good news is you’re not on the hook for $215,838.23, or anything near it: the new buyer will now have a 30-year obligation. But because the house got cheaper, and interest rates happened to follow suit, the new buyer’s obligation will be a lot less than yours was.

You do owe something. If you look at your monthly mortgage statement, you’ll see that part of your monthly payment goes to the principal while the remainder goes to interest. Which stands to reason – at the 29-year-and-11-month mark, you’d obviously have paid off almost all the original $120,000 principal. Which means that early in the mortgage term, you’ve paid off almost none of it. Here’s a sobering chart that shows how much of the principal you’ve paid down at different points throughout the life of your loan:

Even a few years in, you’ve barely made a dent in the principal. It’s not until you reach the ¾-mark of the mortgage term that the house is more yours than the bank’s. If you think this is unfair, take it up with God for making mathematics work the way He did. Or find a rich uncle to lend you money interest-free.

Anyhow, back to your problem. Five years in, you’ve reduced the principal by $8,334.77, leaving $111,665.23 to go. (Trust us on this. Or just go here.) If you short-sell the house for $105,000, you’re out $6,665.23.

Plus you’re out your $30,000 down payment. Plus the realtor’s fee and closing costs, which are around 6% of the purchase price, so say $6,300. And don’t forget the 5 years’ worth of payments you already made.

Total outlay? $86,132.83.

Worst deal ever? No. Again, always look at opportunity cost – what you would have spent otherwise. Keep in mind that you paid that $86,132.83 over 5 years, and most of it is the mortgage payments you already made. That’s important because had you never bought the house, you would have had to spend something close to those mortgage payments anyway, on rent. Assuming that rents and mortgage payments are similar, you can ignore the $43,167.60.

So your 5-year experiment in overextending yourself with a house cost you close to $42,965.23, or $716.08 a month.

But again, opportunity cost. What’s the alternative to selling short?

If you walk away from the house and the bank forecloses on it, that means you probably let it fall into disrepair, or worse – after all, you’re no longer living in it and have no incentive to make it look good for a buyer. Industry standard is around a 20% discount for bank-owned properties – the bank probably won’t bother putting any money into an abandoned house, and will entertain the first solid offer that comes along just to get the house off its balance sheet.

A 20% discount means the bank will sell the house for around $84,000. Just because you ran away, doesn’t mean they won’t catch you. While you’ve reduced your principal balance to $111,665.23, that means the bank can come after you for a $27,665.23 deficiency judgment. They’ll win. Add that to the $30,000 you put down originally, and that’s $57,665.23.

In this example, selling short will save you $14,700 vs. walking away. Nor will it damage your credit quite as badly, nor will it label you a deadbeat.

*Most people who got in a position where they had to sell short are in exotic mortgages, which is of course a symptom of the bigger problem. If you know that you’re going to have the exact same payment every month for the next 30 years, that’s a certainty that you should be thrilled about. Fixed expenses are far easier to account for than variable ones.

**This post is featured in Totally Money Carnival #17**