Everyone’s Jean Freaking Chatzky

He's a FOREIGN EXCHANGE student. (Which will make sense in a minute.)

Once a week or so, we get solicited by someone offering to write us a guest post. The offer usually comes as a template, and about 15% of them get the name of the blog wrong (“I really love your work here at    Consumerism Commentary .”) Even when they get our name right, the introductory email almost always tells us all we need to know about the submitter’s writing style (it’s abysmal.)

Last week the folks at something called Forex Traders hit us up. Their point lady was very polite and she followed through when we grilled her on our standards.

The Forex Traders post follows, verbatim. While we don’t like to bother cleaning up other people’s stilted writing (which is far more work than writing a post of our own), we do love to editorialize. So here’s the one-of-a-kind Control Your Cash treatment in a whole new written form: literary criticism (Forex’s gold in this color.) Enjoy.

“Buy-and-Hold” Investing Strategies May Be Extinct Down the Road

Almost everything’s extinct down the road. Just ask trilobites. Not sure what the author’s getting at with the headline. Clearly he thinks something will supplant buy-and-hold investing, but doesn’t think that that replacement is important enough to warrant top billing.

One never-ending “paradox” in the investment community is that, while the investment advisor on the consumer retail front is pushing a “buy-and-hold” strategy for his clients, the back-office traders for the same firm are plying their helter-skelter quantitative trading strategies for all they are worth, and that has translated into millions of dollars of profits for the investment banking community alone.

Wow, way to introduce your topic. Seriously, what are you saying? Here’s a Control Your Cash translation, for our anglophone readers:

Investment advisors encourage you to buy-and-hold. But they make money on commissions, so shouldn’t they preach the opposite?

See what we did there? We went from 66 words to 20 and crystallized your argument. Glad to help.

The back office abhors competition or even the notion of sharing these gains with the general public at large.

“General public at large.” Because “public” wouldn’t have made it clear, so we expanded it to “general public”, and apparently we still don’t think you’d understand what that means, so we went with “general public at large.”
The internet is officially too democratized.

If an investor truly wants above average returns, then he must pick and choose the hot sectors at will.

Write in the second person, you pompously verbose tool. (See? Like that.) You’re not writing to “an investor”. You’re writing to the person reading. Who will appreciate being thought of as a person and not a designation.

Prudent investing may still involve research, locating a value equation that suits your tolerance for risk, making sure that your selections are well diversified, and then pruning and fine tuning your portfolio as time goes by. What has changed is the process for achieving each of these objectives. The era of globalization is upon us.

Oh, for Christ’s sake. “The era of globalization is upon us”? Thanks for that. It’s true, you know. Computers and the internet and jet travel have made it easy to talk to people in London and Paris like they’re just down the street. Dude, the transatlantic cable was laid 150 YEARS AGO.

Sorry, can’t take this anymore. From here on in, we’re going strikethrough on the rest of this bile. Our rewrite will follow. Damn; remember what we said about editing guest posts being more work than writing originals? Maybe one day we’ll learn.

Investing cannot thrive on mere domestic issues alone. Every full-service broker can connect you with any exchange around the globe, but the safest avenue may be to utilize the plethora of Exchange-Traded Funds (“ETF”) that have sprung onto the investing scene in the past decade.

Emerging markets have been the success story over the past decade, and the best way to invest in this space is through an ETF designed for the purpose. Offerings can focus on a specific country or region, like Asia, but when you invest overseas, you must accept some currency trading risk along with the ride. As long as the U.S. Dollar weakens during your holding period, currency appreciation can actually work to your benefit.
Hedging your forex risk is not recommended for the inexperienced, but, by keeping an eye on the Dollar’s general value, you can opt in or out at the most opportune times.

The world has also gone crazy over forex trading during the past decade as well. This popularity has more to do with flexibility and the advance of technical trading platforms, but you need not jump into that market for the short term. If expectations are for a weaker Dollar, and they will continue to be as long as the Fed pursues its quantitative easing program agenda, then there are ETF’s for currency, too. In a weakening situation, the Swiss France (sic) could be a potential bet. If you want a position in the “Swissie”, the “FXF” ETF is invested in the “USD CHF” currency pair and is there for the taking.

ETF’s have the additional benefit of providing instant diversification. No more having to follow twenty-five stocks in your portfolio. Invest in sectors by choosing from a variety of ETF’s. Domestic companies, emerging markets, precious metals, and commodities can now coexist in the same portfolio. As for reviews, check the performance of the few funds that you hold, prune and fine tune as you like, and buy and sell on the exchange as with any other security. Investing in emerging markets was never so accessible.

Translated, he said:

Buy an exchange-traded fund; a mutual fund that, you guessed it, trades on a public exchange. There are ETFs that focus on particular sectors of the economy, or on particular securities (commodities, precious metals, etc.) You can buy ETFs that concentrate on a particular region of the world. That means you’ll have to pay attention to exchange rates. And that means you can hedge a weak U.S. dollar.
Which brings us to trading currencies themselves. But rather than invest directly in baht or rubles, you can buy a currency ETF. For instance, the Rydex CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust, which trades on NYSEArca, a division of the New York Stock Exchange.

Why would I buy that instead of just buying francs?

You shouldn’t. The only advantage to a currency ETF is that if you’ve already got a mutual fund through a place that offers currency ETFs, you can have both accounts in one place.

The end.

Addendum:

The headline, which didn’t make much sense when we read it blindly, makes even less sense now.
We’re not above shilling here at Control Your Cash (we’ve been fellating the Amazon Kindle for months now, and even the small version is a chore to wrap one’s lips around), but it’s got to be a product or service we believe in. Which currency ETFs aren’t.

And if you don’t want your clumsy, long-winded, misspelled guest post goofed on and dismembered, send it to someone else.

**This article is featured in the Carnival of Wealth #39**

1 tip for finding undervalued stocks

Recycle Friday! Featuring something we already wrote for someone else’s blog, but liked enough to eventually want back. Last spring this ran on Free From Broke. Today, we’ve updated it for a more mature audience.

1 Tip for finding undervalued stocks

Nah. Shop at the place next door, with the higher prices.

Why do people get excited when their favorite retailer holds a sale, but not when Wall Street does?

Let’s start with the obligatory disclaimer – this is not an encouragement nor a discouragement to buy or sell particular securities, stocks carry risk, consult a financial advisor but you don’t have to, etc.  That was for that infinitesimally small segment of the population that is a) literate enough to read this post, yet b) dumb enough to do whatever a disembodied online voice suggests.  There, now you can read the post absolved of any obligation to think.

Most investors know, in theory, that it’s foolish to buy at the top of the market and sell at the bottom. (Of course, human nature means that the opposite is true in practice – otherwise the top and bottom wouldn’t be where they are.)  But it’s equally foolish to assume that the market will carry you along indefinitely if you just buy a flat representation of it and don’t research at all.  We have 12+ years of real-world evidence of that.  Factoring in inflation, the Dow has risen by an average of .4% annually since February of 1997.  Your index fund would have been better off if it had collected tin cans since the Packers last won a Super Bowl.

There is such a thing as overdiversification. You might find stability in a comprehensive index fund, but it’s impossible to find any significant value.  Buying a basket of Dow stocks, or something similar like a Wilshire 5000 index fund, will likely give fantastic returns over an 80-year period.  If you plan on not waiting until you’re 115 years old to enjoy your money, there are more targeted ways to go about attempting to build wealth in the stock market.

Instead, look at companies that are temporarily wounded, i.e. whose stock sells at a discount. Earlier this year, when the global CEO of Toyota (NYSE: TM) was being grilled on Capitol Hill for selling cars to people who confused the brake with the accelerator, the company’s stock sank.  But some fleeting bad PR can’t negate a decades-long reputation for value and quality.  A few weeks after our demonstrative congressmen and senators finally pulled the curtain on their combination political theater/witch trial, Toyota stock had quietly gained 15%.

Around the time Toyota emerged from a bruising at the unfair hands of public opinion, British Petroleum (NYSE: BP) made Toyota’s problems look trivial.  BP traded at $60.48 the day the Deepwater Horizon spill began.  Today it’s at $36.52, a 60% drop.  The rig’s manufacturer, Transocean (NYSE: RIG), has fallen from $92.03 to $50.04 over the same period, a 46% decline.  Fortunately for Transocean, it’s in an industry with few players.  Also, most people had barely heard of it since it doesn’t sell directly to the public.  (When was the last time you bought an oil rig?)  This distinguishes Transocean from BP, which plasters its logo everywhere and goes out of its way to embed itself in the public consciousness.  Thanks to that insistence, almost everyone identifies the Gulf of Mexico spill with BP more than they do Transocean.

Both BP and Transocean have otherwise healthy financials that can normally withstand a one-time event. Then again, Deepwater Horizon is some event.  But a wounded company isn’t a doomed company: despite the Exxon Valdez disaster, ExxonMobil went from pariah to the world’s most profitable company in just a few years.  Johnson & Johnson rebounded after the Tylenol scare of 1982 and came back stronger than ever.  There are several ways to murder a company along with its stock: obsolescence (Atari), poor economics (General Motors) and rampant crime (Enron) are three of the most efficient.  But for a temporarily disabled company with a history of success and goodwill (in the general sense, not the accounting sense)?  A resurgence is more likely than you think.  Don’t confuse a broken bone with a bullet wound through the cranium.

One more time: there’s always value somewhere in the stock market, but very rarely can you make money simply by buying into the market as a whole.  In fact, the times when the market (as a whole) rises fastest are when the gains are most dubious and tentative – case in point, the dot-com bubble and ensuing crash.  More accurately, there’s always value in the stock market among particular entrants.  Finding the ones whose stock prices have suffered for no better reason than that of public perception is as wise a place as any to start.

Buying a vacation home on a teacher’s salary

Investing, Create wealth, control your cash, retirement planning

It’s at your vacation home, you whining harpy. (By the way, this picture was taken in Florida. Miami, to be precise. On February 11. A school day.

As philistines and libertarians, we make it a point never to listen to NPR nor watch PBS (why would we, they don’t broadcast football.) Unless, of course, NPR runs a story on a college classmate of ours. Especially with such an auspicious introductory line:

There are wealthy Canadians buying multimillion-dollar beachfront homes. And there are people like “Kirk”, who recently bought a 2-bedroom condo in Fort Myers, Fla., sight unseen.

Kirk is the high school teacher in question, and it’s not as if he retired from a lucrative career in personal finance before switching careers. He paid $56,000 for the condo, which sounds like a price out of the 1970s.

The NPR interviewer didn’t ask him how he afforded a vacation home on a teacher’s salary, especially with a couple of kids to feed. Nor did NPR ask him how he ever managed to date Khyrstine Thibeault, the hottest girl on campus, despite being neither a jock nor a rich kid nor remarkably good-looking. That’s where Control Your Cash came in. Kirk elaborates:

We went on vacation to Fort Myers Beach about 3 years ago, but I knew the price was cheaper inland than it was near the Gulf. We actually didn’t stay near this particular unit at all.

We bought the unit in early May and then we saw it in late August. We bought through Florida Home Finders of Canada in Brampton, Ontario. I saw pictures of the unit, went online to see what the area was like, what units were going for, etc. We didn’t use, or need, an appraiser or home inspector because FHFC had done all the legwork.

I borrowed C$50,000. I had $10,000 from a condo sale that went sour in Whitby, Ontario. With the Canadian dollar at U.S. 96¢ the Fort Myers condo was a shade under C$60,000.

 

By go sour, he means that the condo company went out of business and he got his down payment back.

I paid for it with a home equity loan over 25 years. I think it was 3½% or 4%. I wanted to keep it separate from the mortgage on my primary residence in Canada, just in case we do a home renovation. (If we do,) then I will extend my mortgage.

 

If you’re thinking about a big purchase like this, especially if it involves big financing like this, understand that a 3½% mortgage and a 4% mortgage aren’t interchangeable. You don’t just round the number to the nearest integer and hope for the best. If the interest rate on this home equity loan is 4%, Kirk would be paying $263.92 monthly. Which is $79,175.53 over the course of the loan. If it’s 3½%, he’d be paying $250.31 monthly, or $75,093.54. Or $4.081.99 less over the course of the loan.

I have an off-site property management company that guarantees me a renter and takes 8%. Every month they rent it out for $792, and deposit my share of that in my bank account. The homeowners association takes their $273 (Editor’s note: holy crap) and then I’m left with about 470ish a month. ($455.64, by our calculations.) I pay $122 on my loan every 2 months, (sic, he means weeks) so I guess I’m ahead about $200 every 2 months (not sure what he means here, but we think it’s “every month”. See below). My tax bill was just under $1000 at the end of the year. Tax time is coming up, I’m not sure what to expect there.

Our take? This condo was a sufficiently smoking deal that Kirk will still profit from despite making a couple of mistakes.

Here are a few tips if you fancy yourself a low-level land baron:

1. Know your numbers. Nothing’s more important than this.

Kirk had only a hazy idea of his interest rate. A 50-basis point difference is huge. His low estimate is 1/8 less than his high estimate.
Assuming the higher estimate, he nets a pre-tax $205.33 monthly. Hopefully a) it’s a fixed-rate mortgage and b) Kirk knows that it is.

2. This doesn’t necessarily apply to Kirk, but know your terms, too. If you don’t, ask someone. Keep asking people until the answer is no longer ambiguous. We know of one 40-something apartment dweller who was ready to “send some guys over” to deal physically with her old landlord. Why? Because she had been on a lease option, which works like a regular rental arrangement for a fixed term. At the end of the term the renter has the option to buy the place.

She had never heard the term before, and assumed that it meant her monthly payments were going toward eventual ownership of the condo, like an ordinary mortgage. No, those monthly payments were going to pay her landlord’s mortgage. Her lease expired and she had neither the tens of thousands of dollars on hand, nor financing in lieu, to buy the place. She had been nothing more than a renter, and didn’t even realize it.

(Editor’s Note: Therefore, a lease option is a wonderful thing to be on the other side of. Worst-case scenario, you sell your property for a price you already agreed to, all the while having had your mortgage payments taken care of by the renter. Better-case scenario, the lease term expires, the renter can’t afford to exercise the option and you get to keep owning the place. There’s an excellent chance of that happening. There’s a reason why most renters are renting, and that reason is fiscal indiscipline.)

Assuming Kirk’s numbers are consistent, more than 40% of his net condo revenue goes to taxes. Still, if he’s “getting paid” $1400 a year to own a modest vacation home, there are worse places for him to have put that home equity loan.

**This article is featured in the Yakezie Carnival: The Chuck Norris Edition**

**This popular article is also featured at the Baby Boomers Blog Carnival Eighty-Eighth Edition**