MAILBAG!

Mailbag

Oh no, that's not a European male carry-on at all. Very masculine.

Where do you suggest buying hard assets like gold or silver?
John, Las Vegas

Let’s start with someone who clearly read one of our previous posts.

Two ways to go here – ingots or coins. You’d think ingots would be the more liquid, easily transferable form. They aren’t always, and here’s why.

National governments issue coins, which means they come with some implicit guarantee. Should the gold market bottom out, your $10 American Eagle gold coin will still be legal tender. A bar is easier to fake. Even if you know a bar is real, a seller won’t and will insist that you pay to have a dealer examine and verify it if it doesn’t come with an assay certificate. That’s less likely with a coin, which is harder to counterfeit.

The U.S. Mint sells coins at huge markups – like, 20% (or 36% if you buy in tenths of ounces.) Better to go through a private dealer like Goldline or Monex, which sells at a smaller markup (around 4%).

The latter will also sell bars, which are forged privately. They’ll carry the logo of the manufacturer, stamped right on the bar. Johnson Matthey, a UK company, is a big one. So is Credit Suisse.

Your local bank might sell you gold over-the-counter, too. Not surprisingly, your chances are better with a big national or multinational bank than with a community bank.

My company takes $x per pay period and puts it in a 401(k). They match up to $x that I contribute. What is my company doing with my money?
Donnie, Austin

They’re doing exactly what you told them to, whatever that is.

Your company almost certainly uses just one provider to handle its employees’ 401(k)s. If your company’s big enough, once a year someone from that provider shows up and tells everyone where they can invest their 401(k) money. The provider will probably let you choose from a bunch of mutual funds – some that focus on growth, others that focus on dividend income, etc. You selected one and with your next paycheck, the money started going to whichever 401(k) instrument you chose. The money your employer matched your contributions with went to the same place. So ultimately, that money probably ended up with Hewlett-Packard or American Learning Corporation or Overland Storage or Burlington Northern Santa Fe or whatever. Or all of the above. But again, it’s only going there because you specifically asked for it to.

I love being grandfathered into the SARSEP plan I set up for my company before Billy Bob Clinton abolished them. No reason to look to get out of that, correct?
Andy, Indianapolis

No.
A SARSEP is, was, a Salary Reduction Simplified Employee Pension Plan. As you can tell, the IRS took acronymic license with that one.
As Andy mentioned, SARSEPs went the way of the passenger pigeon 14 years ago. Under a SARSEP, if your business had under 25 employees, and most of them agreed, you could direct part of their pay to an Individual Retirement Account. SARSEPs were a special class of the SEP-IRA, which is a little more relevant to our discussion.
A SEP-IRA is a way for small businesses to circumvent the rule that an employee can only contribute $15,000 annually to an IRA. (You want to be able to contribute a lot, as that’ll lower your tax liability today.) The maximum an employee can contribute under a SEP-IRA depends on how much the company earned. A SEP-IRA is essentially a profit-sharing plan. The most you can contribute on an employee’s behalf is either
a) ¼ of his salary, or
b) $49,000, whichever’s less.
That latter number rises annually. If you work for yourself, substitute 1/5 for ¼ and factor in the self-employed tax deduction. Isn’t accounting at the government’s behest fun?
One more thing: if you work for yourself, you know what the maximum you can contribute is? It’s a percentage of net profit.
20%?
Lower.
19%?
Lower.
18%?
Higher.
18.587045%?
Yes! And you read that correctly; the functionaries at the IRS actually drew the percentage out to 6 decimal places. Because if they let you contribute 18.587046%, which is an extra 1¢ on every $1 million, it would be unfair to some interest group.
How many examples have we given of the tax code needing to be imploded and started again from the ground up?
An aside: what’s the breaking point? At the rate we’re going, the IRS code will exceed a billion pages in the lifetime of some of us. Would a code that size be long enough to make taxpayers agree that the process under which their money’s confiscated is too confusing? Would the politicians of that era care enough to do anything about it? Is this as futile as trying to stamp out corruption or get everyone on the planet to quit smoking?
We do a mailbag whenever we get enough good, legitimate questions. Send yours to info@ControlYourCash.com.

What that dollar in your pocket isn’t worth

Balloon bursting

It's a bursting balloon, not a rotting orange. Same thing.

First, read this. Can’t be bothered? To summarize, a year ago we questioned the convention of quoting the price of gold in terms of dollars, instead of the other way around. After all, gold is more stable and less subject to manipulation than money that the Federal Reserve creates out of ether.

Back then, the U.S. dollar traded at 29.65 milligrams of gold (Aumg.)

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, the closest thing we have to a pure autocrat in the modern world, assures us that the dollar’s value is strong and its purchasing power uncompromised. After all, inflation has been negligible over the past year, right?

Measuring yesterday’s devalued dollar against today’s is one thing. Measuring it against gold is something different. Today, the dollar’s trading at 21.77 Aumg. At the rate we’re going, another 3 years and the value of the dollar will be eradicated.

Here’s some more currency value fun. It’s an updated chart from that 2009 post, with a bonus row for our longtime readers:

October 2009 valueValue today
44.1830.19
£48.1535.08
yen.33.27
Swiss franc29.1422.52
Mexican peso2.261.78
renminbi4.343.27
Russian ruble1.01.71

Yeah, inflation’s nothing to worry about. Neither in the United States nor around the world.

Go out today and buy a hard asset. Or two.

**Featured in the Wealth Builder Carnival #16**

What do numbers and humans have in common? The irrational ones predominate.

This week marks the 23rd anniversary of Light Gray Wednesday. On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 23% of its value. Alas, no Goldman Sachs employees jumped out of their windows and ended up literally on Wall Street, which would have been awesome.

Over the course of one shocking trading day, the typical individual pension fund went from having 20 years worth of reserves to having 15. Stock options were instantly rendered worthless. Frightened American seniors started pricing cat food brands (Fancy Feast Classic Savory Salmon, 39¢ for a 3-oz. can.) High school juniors started downgrading their aspirations and applying to state colleges. The kids’ parents started smoking off-brand cigarettes – even the non-smoking parents – and saving up the frequent-buyer points. President Reagan and Congress were under pressure to do something to stop the carnage (more on this later.)

The first 100-point drop in the Dow began early in the morning: and this was back when the index itself was at barely 2000, less than one-fifth of where it stands today. Panicking investors copied the lead of previously panicking investors, selling their shares and forcing stocks to drop another 100 points by lunchtime. People on the West Coast woke up, assessed the devastation and followed suit. By the time investors in Honolulu and Anchorage were in a mood to eat breakfast, they’d seen their portfolios blown apart.

The drop wasn’t confined to the United States, nor did it originate here. It hit our shores after already overwhelming Hong Kong, not unlike Pai Gow. Once Hong Kong’s market crashed, so did the markets in Australia, then Western Europe. (An ancillary point: one of the biggest differences between international commerce of a generation ago and that of today is that back then, there was a 6000-mile swath ranging from Singapore to Tallinn that had no stock markets to speak of.) That very month, R.E.M. released “It’s The End of The World As We Know It”, a clear choice for the opening track on the soundtrack to the financial apocalypse that we were all going to have to face.

Who or what to blame? Favorite culprits included:

-computers. Those newfangled machines were blindly selling stocks, often to each other with negligible human input;
-an anti-inflation policy in the United States, though Europe had nothing similar and even if it did, something as gradual as that wouldn’t explain such a sudden drop in one day.

The real answer to what caused the crash is “it doesn’t matter.” What no one mentions is that within 2 days, the market had regained the vast majority of its losses. On net, the Dow actually rose that year. The relevant politicians at the time were either wise enough to know – or too busy to worry over the fact – that you can’t legislate opinions. Which is exactly what stock prices are.

So many of the indicators that we use to measure our prosperity are subjective, but especially the Dow. If you select a random public company, read its financial disclosures, and examine its income statement and balance sheet, a fair and reasonable stock price ought to correspond to that data. But that’s not necessarily the case. A profitable oil company with a rich history (BP) can suffer one huge setback and watch its market cap tumble. An over-the-counter company with almost no assets and no finished projects (Prime Sun Power) can trade at tens of thousands of times earnings, just because of its ecologically correct name.

The point? If you see unjustifiable movement, step away and breathe for a second. Investors sold off on the afternoon of October 19, 1987 for no better reason than investors were doing the same thing that morning, too. Playing lowball was, to put it simply, a fad. Just like bidding up the prices of online toy retailers would be 13 years later.

Collective rationality, or some form of it, usually wins out. In the case of Black Monday, it took almost no time at all for that to happen. The crises are rarely as important as the mundane, day-to-day activity, and the extremes rarely represent any market’s true level. Think about that when mortgage rates and home prices hit another nadir this week.