Look at the BIG PICTURE

 

Our generation's U.S. Steel

Slow down, already.

Yesterday, Arizona Diamondbacks left fielder Gerardo Parra went 4-for-4 against the Houston Astros, making Parra the best hitter in the world by far. He batted 1.000, or 634 points higher than Ty Cobb’s record career average. Move over, Georgia Peach, there’s a new all-time greatest: baseball’s first perfect hitter. Parra’s historic achievement will doubtless lead every sportscast across the nation and put him on the cover of Sports Illustrated and possibly Time and Newsweek.

Don’t be ridiculous. One day means nothing. Any idiot knows you can’t look at batting averages over a 4-at-bat period and determine anything meaningful.

Are you sure? Because judging from the nationwide panic over Monday’s stock market drop, the extreme short term means everything.

Our nation’s debt got downgraded Friday, for the first time in history (which is to say, 90 years.) Which presumably means the United States will have to pay higher interest rates to borrow money in the future. Those interest rates will trickle down to the institutional and consumer levels, meaning we’re all going to be paying a few basis points more. The price of money goes up, less of us can afford to borrow, and the economy will stagnate all the more.

That much is likely true. But it’s not going to happen overnight, despite what Monday’s enormous market drop would indicate. Because once again, the market followed a gigantic fall with a massive rise. It almost always happens this way.

It’s tough for the rookie investor to believe this, and it’s tough for the seasoned investor to remember it, but…

Stock prices are nothing more than opinions. They’re values attached, via crowdsourcing, to intangible pieces of dynamic, vibrant corporations.

And collective human wisdom can sometimes be extremely short-sighted.

That’s “dynamic” and “vibrant” in the literal sense of those words, rather than their modern connotations. Those corporations aren’t necessarily growing richer and more powerful every day, but rather their worths continuously fluctuate.

Think about it. On Monday the Dow dropped 634 points, one of the 10 highest absolute falls in history (relative to its level, it didn’t make the top 30.) Take a random Dow component, i.e. one of the 30 stocks whose prices comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (Read this if that makes no sense.) Caterpillar closed Friday at $91.09, shortly before the debt downgrade came down. CAT closed Monday at $82.60.

Step back for a minute. Does it make any kind of sense that one of America’s most venerable companies (its venerability ratified by its very place on the Dow), the world’s largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, became 10% less desirable to own in a single 8-hour period?

This is a company that grossed $14 billion in profit over the last year. CEO Doug Oberhelmen didn’t suddenly quit and name Russell Brand as his successor. The FDA didn’t find dangerous levels of peanut residue on Caterpillar’s lift trucks. For Caterpillar’s business operations, Monday was just another uneventful day.

But for Wall Street traders and their clients, news that has only an indirect impact on Caterpillar’s business has a direct impact on its stock price. The propensity of traders is to overreact. We just proved that 3 paragraphs ago: there’s no logical reason for a company to suffer a 10% drop in one day unless something cataclysmic happened to its business. Which of course, it didn’t.

On Tuesday, the day after a market sell-off that some ignorant commentators took as the precursor to brokers jumping out of windows (which never happened, not even on Black Monday in 1929), you’ll never guess what happened. The market rose historically, by 429 points. Caterpillar shares gained most of what they’d lost. Again, if you look at it with absolutely no perspective, did Caterpillar do anything to justify a 6% rise in its price, over one day? Of course not. But if you extrapolate that rise over another 10 weeks, CAT will be trading at $1455. This train’s leaving the station! Are you going to be on board?

Every time the market takes a wild daily swing, whether high (stocks just got more difficult for you to buy!) or low (your retirement account lost value!), step back. Don’t ignore the forest for the trees. Even a wild weekly swing is nothing to panic or get excited over. And maybe you should wait a couple of months before declaring a career .279 hitter with below-average power and no particular propensity for getting on base ready for the Hall of Fame.

Parra ran into a couple of pitchers having a bad night. Or perhaps he just swung, hoped for the best, and made contact via dumb luck. Or took advantage of a hungover third baseman playing out of position and begging that the ball not be hit to him. Either way, Parra is not going to be challenging Jose Reyes for a batting title on the strength of one irregular night. Nor is Caterpillar, or any other major corporation, on the brink of bankruptcy. Regardless of what your fellow investors tell you.

**This article is featured in the Totally Money Carnival #33**

GUEST POST: Don’t Reach For The Middle

We found someone who wasn’t intimidated by our guest post guidelines. Nelson Smith, who blogs over at Financial Uproar. He’s one of the very few personal finance bloggers who can actually write. And he’s hilarious. And we agree with almost all of what he has to say. If you like this post, then he’d love for you to come check out his blog.

Few people notice how roomy it is on the right side of the curve.

I’m friends with a married couple, even though I’m single. Yeah, it’s a little weird.

This married couple is just like so many others. They’re both gainfully employed, combined they probably make close to $90k per year. They have reasonable housing costs and reasonable vehicle costs too, since they’re both smart enough to drive fully-paid-for used cars. They don’t spend excessive money on wants. They probably go out a little more than they should, but that’s fairly common for young people. Hell, I go out more often than I should, and I’m probably the third cheapest bastard on the whole internet.

On the surface, they don’t seem to be in bad financial shape. There’s no obvious place where they overspend. Yet, like so many others, they struggle to make ends meet every month. Are they morons? Well… yes. But they’ve got numbers on their side.

If this couple complains to me about their finances one more time, I’ll strangle their puppy. They easily make enough to pay for bills and to save for a rainy day. This shouldn’t be that hard. Why are they struggling so much? Here’s a snapshot of some of the excess in their lives:

– an alarm system ($40 per month)
– unlimited long distance ($20 per month)
– movie rental subscriptions ($25 per month)
– overdraft charges ($40 per month)
– new shoes from some website ($40 per month)
– a dog (>$50 per month)

Chances are, you’re practically blinded with outrage right now. What morons! Who gets a perpetual liability (that’s the dog) when they can barely afford to make ends meet? Who needs new shoes every month? They literally go to work and leave the house unlocked, yet pay for an alarm system. There’s hundreds of dollars more that they could cut from their budget tomorrow if they were serious about cutting. It doesn’t take a financial genius to figure out they’re wasting money. Why don’t they just do it?

Because they don’t care.

Most people sit in kind of a financial purgatory. They don’t get themselves in too much trouble, yet they never bother to get ahead. Every month they essentially break even. Because they have no financial sense, they pat themselves on the back for not getting any further in the hole. They slowly make progress on their student loans or credit cards, even eventually paying them off. Once they do, they decide they can now afford another payment, so they buy a new car. They rinse and repeat until sweet, sweet death saves them from their never-ending avalanche of payments.

Okay, not really. But they don’t get wealthy, that’s for sure.

As the writers here at Control Your Cash advocate tirelessly, the key to wealth is quite simple. Buy assets. Sell liabilities. Keep doing these things until you become wealthy. I guarantee if my friends read that golden rule, they’d understand it. Yet they have just about zero hope of ever implementing it. They’re just not PFers.

For those of you unfamiliar with the term, a PFer is a personal finance geek. PFers check their bank balances more than once a week. PFers constantly look for ways to trim the excess from their budgets. PFers spend more time on their budgets than their sex lives. PFers… well, you get the idea.

Most of the people who’ll ever regularly read this blog are PFers. Some just stumbled here looking for really snarky posts on the lottery or something. Most of us are people trying to move in one direction- toward wealth. And since we hang around each other so much, we often forget just how different we are than most other people.

What I’m going to propose just might shock and appall you, but that’s kind of what I do. After all, my blog is called Financial Uproar. It isn’t called Sunshine Flowers Puppy Personal Finance Hug Hour. I try to tell it like it is, just like the fine folks here at Control Your Cash. And that’s why we’ll be friends forever. Well, that and our friendship bracelets. You did get my friendship bracelet, right Greg? (Ed. note: No.)

What was I talking about again? Right. Here’s what you should do about your friends’ bad financial habits – absolutely nothing. You should give no advice. You should avoid bringing up money topics. They’ll complain about how their financial life sucks, but you should offer no advice past the most simple of concepts. Do not get involved in their finances one bit. And for the love of God, never lend them a dime.

No matter what the accomplishment, the impetus for change has to come from within. If your friends are going to improve their finances, they have to do it. No amount of prodding or helping on your part will get them to change. They have to get to whatever their breaking point is. Your help won’t do squat, as much as you think it might.

Most people will never reach that point. They’ll have a mortgage payment for most of their adult lives. They’ll cash out equity from their house to take vacations and buy cars and pay for their kids’ weddings, because they’re morons. They’ll think they’re doing well because they’ll compare themselves to the masses instead of comparing themselves to the wealthy. 

Chances are that if they’re not already on the path of wealth, they’ll never become any higher than middle-class. No matter how much you want to help, it’ll ultimately fall on deaf ears. You can’t help somebody who doesn’t want to help themselves. Or, more accurately, you can’t help someone who doesn’t think they have a problem.

**This article is featured in the Yakezie Carnival -Newbie Edition**


**This article is featured in the Totally Money Carnival #32-A Flood of Great Articles**

 

We’re scrapping the ads. And therefore raising the viewing price.

The anti-capitalist manifesto from Macmillan Publishers, a division of the $2 billion Georg von Holtzbrinck Publishing Group. Oh GOD I hope Naomi Klein sues us for unauthorized use of the No Logo logo.

Just kidding, we aren’t. Nor would we. Nor would such a move do anything but reduce our readership, which is something we’re trying to take in the other direction, thanks.

People love to complain about advertising – not about its artistic or propagandic merits, but about the medium itself. It’s intrusive. It’s unnecessary. It’s wasteful.

No, commercials make stuff awesome. Banner ads, too. If you’ve got the space, monetize it. Your business, whether home-based or otherwise, needs to generate all the revenue it can. If you think that’s going to somehow compromise your soul, you don’t know what a soul is.

It's disgusting. Look at that intrusive Riddell logo, ruining everything and commercializing the sanctity of sports. Is it so important that they emblazon their name on their product? After all, the product's already been sold. Americans really are the most shamelessly media-saturated people on Earth. I weep for us as a nation.

 

See, the Brits have it right. Here we see AIG's own Wayne Rooney, who plays for the Nike Red Devils, sponsored by an entity called Manchester United, which is a local airline or trucking company or something.

Commercials make television (essentially) free. They make magazines really cheap, assuming you’re among the dwindling few millions who read magazines. For instance, Time sells for $5. Apparently 3.3 million people still read Time, which is an amazing enough superlative in itself, but here’s an even bigger one: 75% of Time’s revenue comes from advertising. So if you removed the ads, you’d be left with a magazine that would a) run about 30 pages and b) have to sell for $20 to generate the same revenue.

If Time sold for $20, Time wouldn’t sell. We may complain about advertising, but it makes things cost less.

We preach again and again at Control Your Cash the wisdom of being a free rider. Free ridership means letting credit card companies charge whatever interest rates they want to the people willing to pay them: and while they do that, you can be the person who enjoys the convenience of buying things while not having to pay for them for up to 60 days (while earning rewards in the process.)

There are myriad ways to be a free rider (or at least, a discounted rider.) You do this every time you buy a coach airline ticket. Laugh or look disdainfully at the people in first class all you want, but you should be kissing their rings: their overpriced tickets subsidize your underpriced ones, letting you fly for less than you otherwise would. For another example, supermarkets historically sold milk at less than cost, the strategy being that if they kept it in the far corner of the store you’d be tempted by all the high-markup items on your way to find the cheap milk.

Wikipedia (heck, most of the internet) works the same way. Enjoy the free content, while letting others donate.

(Save your comments. This isn’t an ethical issue, and it’s not stealing. Wikipedia’s managers don’t charge to access the site, and no one ordered them not to. Same deal with the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.)

The Time magazine numbers above were largely estimates, albeit ones we researched. Here’s an example of an advertising subsidy that we can calculate to the penny:

The entry-level Amazon Kindle (yes, we’re mentioning it again) sells for $139 at the only place you can buy it, Amazon. They recently came out with an ad-supported version for $25 less. Apparently the phrase “ad-supported” didn’t test well, so they went with the indirect “Kindle with Special Offers” instead.

Amazon had a lot of leeway with ad placement – they could have stuck a full-screen ad between every two pages of a book, or put a rotating banner at the bottom of each page. Instead, they didn’t even do as much as that. The advertising consists of just a screen saver (which doesn’t even show up until you’ve gone 10 minutes without touching the Kindle), and an unobtrusive banner on the main page.

Commercialization is nothing to apologize for. If your school district is hemorrhaging money, which it is, why not bring in extra cash while making no fundamental changes? Heck, even the freaking Grand Canyon comes with the occasional subtle and suitably placed corporate logo.

And you know what? Not only is it not the end of the world, it frees up capital to go in places where it can do some good. The more money this site makes, the more inclined we are to write good posts. And keep you coming back. And bringing your friends. And increasing our readership so we can charge more for ads.

(Thanks to our wonderful sponsors – CorpNet, Cash4Laptops, Amazon, Shoeboxed and more. That’s Shoeboxed, digitizing your receipts and other documents since 2006.)

**This article is featured in the Yakezie Carnival-Best of Yakezie this week**