What that dollar in your pocket isn’t worth

Balloon bursting

It's a bursting balloon, not a rotting orange. Same thing.

First, read this. Can’t be bothered? To summarize, a year ago we questioned the convention of quoting the price of gold in terms of dollars, instead of the other way around. After all, gold is more stable and less subject to manipulation than money that the Federal Reserve creates out of ether.

Back then, the U.S. dollar traded at 29.65 milligrams of gold (Aumg.)

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, the closest thing we have to a pure autocrat in the modern world, assures us that the dollar’s value is strong and its purchasing power uncompromised. After all, inflation has been negligible over the past year, right?

Measuring yesterday’s devalued dollar against today’s is one thing. Measuring it against gold is something different. Today, the dollar’s trading at 21.77 Aumg. At the rate we’re going, another 3 years and the value of the dollar will be eradicated.

Here’s some more currency value fun. It’s an updated chart from that 2009 post, with a bonus row for our longtime readers:

October 2009 valueValue today
44.1830.19
£48.1535.08
yen.33.27
Swiss franc29.1422.52
Mexican peso2.261.78
renminbi4.343.27
Russian ruble1.01.71

Yeah, inflation’s nothing to worry about. Neither in the United States nor around the world.

Go out today and buy a hard asset. Or two.

**Featured in the Wealth Builder Carnival #16**

What do numbers and humans have in common? The irrational ones predominate.

This week marks the 23rd anniversary of Light Gray Wednesday. On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 23% of its value. Alas, no Goldman Sachs employees jumped out of their windows and ended up literally on Wall Street, which would have been awesome.

Over the course of one shocking trading day, the typical individual pension fund went from having 20 years worth of reserves to having 15. Stock options were instantly rendered worthless. Frightened American seniors started pricing cat food brands (Fancy Feast Classic Savory Salmon, 39¢ for a 3-oz. can.) High school juniors started downgrading their aspirations and applying to state colleges. The kids’ parents started smoking off-brand cigarettes – even the non-smoking parents – and saving up the frequent-buyer points. President Reagan and Congress were under pressure to do something to stop the carnage (more on this later.)

The first 100-point drop in the Dow began early in the morning: and this was back when the index itself was at barely 2000, less than one-fifth of where it stands today. Panicking investors copied the lead of previously panicking investors, selling their shares and forcing stocks to drop another 100 points by lunchtime. People on the West Coast woke up, assessed the devastation and followed suit. By the time investors in Honolulu and Anchorage were in a mood to eat breakfast, they’d seen their portfolios blown apart.

The drop wasn’t confined to the United States, nor did it originate here. It hit our shores after already overwhelming Hong Kong, not unlike Pai Gow. Once Hong Kong’s market crashed, so did the markets in Australia, then Western Europe. (An ancillary point: one of the biggest differences between international commerce of a generation ago and that of today is that back then, there was a 6000-mile swath ranging from Singapore to Tallinn that had no stock markets to speak of.) That very month, R.E.M. released “It’s The End of The World As We Know It”, a clear choice for the opening track on the soundtrack to the financial apocalypse that we were all going to have to face.

Who or what to blame? Favorite culprits included:

-computers. Those newfangled machines were blindly selling stocks, often to each other with negligible human input;
-an anti-inflation policy in the United States, though Europe had nothing similar and even if it did, something as gradual as that wouldn’t explain such a sudden drop in one day.

The real answer to what caused the crash is “it doesn’t matter.” What no one mentions is that within 2 days, the market had regained the vast majority of its losses. On net, the Dow actually rose that year. The relevant politicians at the time were either wise enough to know – or too busy to worry over the fact – that you can’t legislate opinions. Which is exactly what stock prices are.

So many of the indicators that we use to measure our prosperity are subjective, but especially the Dow. If you select a random public company, read its financial disclosures, and examine its income statement and balance sheet, a fair and reasonable stock price ought to correspond to that data. But that’s not necessarily the case. A profitable oil company with a rich history (BP) can suffer one huge setback and watch its market cap tumble. An over-the-counter company with almost no assets and no finished projects (Prime Sun Power) can trade at tens of thousands of times earnings, just because of its ecologically correct name.

The point? If you see unjustifiable movement, step away and breathe for a second. Investors sold off on the afternoon of October 19, 1987 for no better reason than investors were doing the same thing that morning, too. Playing lowball was, to put it simply, a fad. Just like bidding up the prices of online toy retailers would be 13 years later.

Collective rationality, or some form of it, usually wins out. In the case of Black Monday, it took almost no time at all for that to happen. The crises are rarely as important as the mundane, day-to-day activity, and the extremes rarely represent any market’s true level. Think about that when mortgage rates and home prices hit another nadir this week.

Debunkery, yet again

Vertical stripes make you look young

 

I hate writing about this topic, so much so that I can’t even be bothered to downshift and transfer this post to the third person like I always do. The only challenge this week will be seeing if I can write 800 words without including anything that could be construed as a double entendre.

Brett Favre might be the most reported-upon athlete of my lifetime. Regrettably, little of that media coverage focuses on his powerful arm, his speedy setup and release, his ability to overcome average mechanics to consistently find receivers downfield, or his superlative longevity.

No, the coverage focuses on his first retirement. His father dying hours before a Monday night game and Brett eking out a win. His grandchild. His second retirement. His enthusiasm for Vicodin, as if a guy whose job includes regularly getting the wind knocked out of him by fast and gigantic men should just play through the pain. His third and fourth retirements. His childlike enthusiasm, just a kid having fun out there! His final comeback, spurred by his daughter saying (I swear to God I saw Favre say this or something close to it on TV), “’Daddy, do you think you could win one more Super Bowl for me?’” (As long as he was concocting folklore, why not give her leukemia while he was at it?) And yes, maybe a story or 2 on the penis shots.

I tweeted earlier this week that Babe Ruth wouldn’t have made it to 714 home runs today. He would have incurred a 2,000-game suspension somewhere along the line for defiling a willing groupie with a champagne bottle. What about the first time Wilt Chamberlain mailed a Polaroid of the Little Dipper to a receptive white woman? Forget about it. David Stern would have ordered sensitivity training with a licensed therapist, whom Wilt would have almost certainly ended up bedding.

What does this have to do with personal finance? A fanciful Forbes post that I refuse to link to claims that Favre’s 2-year old texts to a woman who looks uncannily like his wife will cost him $100 million in lost salary, endorsements and speaking fees. Just for the record, those texts went to a woman who exposed her own genitalia to anyone willing to buy the relevant issue of Playboy.

It’s that kind of innumerate nonsense that doesn’t deserve a response, but to summarize:

  • He’s 41. His playing career’s almost over, this time for real. He’s going to get paid through the year, and likely wasn’t going to find a contract for 2011 anyway.
  • There was no breakdown between retirement-era speaking fees and endorsements in the Forbes estimate, but let’s say half and half? That’d be roughly 4 billion speaking appearances. (What, I can’t play fast and loose with numbers, too?) However many appearances it is, that sort of schedule would defeat the purpose of being retired.
  • Does Jenn Sterger really want to claim harassment? She hasn’t done so formally. Hopefully she’d appreciate the irony of someone whose fame derives exclusively from exploiting her own sexuality painting herself as a victim. Even if she is that mercenary, a couple hundred thousand ought to shut her up.
  • Favre isn’t Roman Polanski. Or Mike Tyson. Or even Ben Roethlisberger. Or even Zeke Mowatt. Favre is a sexual harasser like Deion Sanders is a felon (he got arrested once. For fishing out of season.)

The worst part about the “$100 million” figure, aside from its basis in something other than reality, is that it reignites the tired catcalling about how athletes are overpaid. I’d do his job for nothing, how does being able to throw a tight spiral benefit society, teachers should get more than quarterbacks (well, maybe JaMarcus Russell), etc.

Favre will take home 8 digits this year, and that must have some nefarious connection to the small hourly wage that Metrodome game-day personnel make. Or to the starting salary for a teacher in the Minneapolis-St. Paul area.

No, Favre’s riches derive from one thing: how much revenue he can generate: or more accurately, his employers’ assessment of how much revenue he can generate.

Having Favre in the backfield means Vikings center John Sullivan isn’t snapping the ball to empty space, which would result in an 0-16 season. More practically speaking, having Favre around means Tarvaris Jackson isn’t the Vikings’ starting quarterback. (Granted, starting Favre at quarterback this season has resulted in only 1 victory. But again, Vikings’ ownership was projecting from what Favre had done throughout his nonpareil career, culminating in taking his team to within a couple of plays of the Super Bowl the previous season.)

Favre’s fame and longevity make whatever personal charisma he has more visible. That means that if he can recite a line and look at a camera somewhat convincingly, Sears can hire him to sell TVs. Or VFC, parent of Wrangler, can hire Favre to sell jeans. We don’t know how many TV or jeans sales to attribute to Favre being on camera, but presumably they’re enough to make it worthwhile to have him on the payroll.

The teacher who keeps the peace in an elementary school classroom, staying in the ultimate professional comfort zone while finishing work at 3:00 every afternoon and getting summers off, has skills that are easy to find and replicate. Same with the retiree who takes tickets at the Metrodome entrance. If that teacher can get 64,111 students into her class, at prices ranging from $39 to $143, and sell the broadcast rights to her classes for a few million, then she can start complaining about being underpaid.

**This post is featured in the Carnival of Personal Finance #281**