Money Won’t Find You. You Have To Meet It Halfway.

Emulate this cat’s investment strategy, if not his look

 

The CYC principals work at home and thus employ the Fox Business Network as much of the soundtrack (and in our male half’s case, the visual stimulus) for our daily lives. While listening and desultorily watching, we hear the same corporations mentioned again and again. Lately it’s been the ones you’d expect: Facebook and its declining stock price, Apple and its historic book value, Nike (about to release an expensive new shoe), Best Buy (just hired a new CEO, the equivalent of the Doña Paz hiring a new captain after crashing into the Vector), etc.

All of them are famous, with much of the companies’ values deriving from their brand names. That’s why they’re featured so prominently in the media; or perhaps vice versa.

Name recognition is, without question, the worst possible criterion for determining the worth of a stock. In our above examples we have:

  • A pop-culture leviathan that’s effectively eliminated all its competition, and an advertising vehicle that millions of people lock their eyeballs onto daily.
  • A iconic company that not only makes elegantly designed and famously reliable gadgets and computers, but one that’s discovered how to sell slightly upgraded versions of said gadgets to the same loyal customers year after year.
  • Another icon with a devoted following (albeit slightly less devoted than Apple’s), and which, like Apple, sells a lifestyle and a state of mind as much as it sells products.
  • A retail chain whose death throes are almost audible. A decade ago, it was a legitimately cool place to buy toys: today, it’s a prehistoric version of Amazon. Or of the Apple Store.

Publicity is important for entertainers and their ilk. For corporations looking to make money in the long term (and their shareholders), being in the public eye could not be less important. Groupon has gotten more headlines than Cardinal Health every single day of the former’s existence, but it’s the latter that turned a $1 billion profit last year. And sold $100 billion worth of product (drugs, mostly). And employs 30,000 people. Cardinal Health held its initial public offering in 1983, back when Groupon’s managers and directors were barely alive. But there’s a larger point here than comparing daily deal sites to stodgy old pharmaceutical firms.

Listen. Investing is not supposed to be fun.

Check that. Investing should be lots of fun. It’s a far less laborious (and multiplicative) way to build wealth than is working for 8 hours a day. Maybe we’re unclear on how to define “fun”.

We’ve told you in the past not to buy a stock just because you happen to be a customer. But we can do better than just giving you subtractive advice, telling you what to avoid.

Embrace boredom. Invest in workable, quietly successful companies that the average mouth-breather traipsing his way down the street wouldn’t think twice about.

You know what publicly traded company has the highest profit margins? That is, among all of them? Apple is tops among the ones we’ve mentioned so far, but it’s only 24th among all public companies.

Devon Energy! You remember Devon Energy, right? Of course you don’t, you were too busy reading about that chick with the jacked-up teeth getting engaged to that Nickelback guy.

Devon Energy is a natural gas/oil producer based out of Oklahoma City. They own pipelines that are mostly in Texas but that stretch all the way to Illinois. Devon has operations as far north as the British Columbia-Northwest Territories border.

And you’ve never heard of them. The stock is trading at around $60, which is barely 10 times annual earnings. Last year each share paid 80¢ worth of dividends. Analysts think it’ll hit $77 a year from now. Both revenue and gross profit have increased 20% annually over the last few years, the kind of sustained growth that most better-publicized companies can only fantasize about.

(Notice we didn’t tell you what Devon Energy stock has done in the past year. That’s irrelevant to people who don’t own the stock, which presumably includes you.)

None of your friends will be impressed if you tell them you bought a standard lot of Devon Energy. Rather, they’ll get bored and want to leave the room. Fine. Let them.

Opportunities don’t go out of their way to get your attention. Never forget this. Facebook stock was never going to bring you untold riches. The newsworthy IPOs that would don’t exist.

What about Google?

Fine, you got us. Also, retroactively picking stocks is cheating. Google was enjoying healthy if not tropospheric profit margins from Day 1, unlike Facebook. Google was a relatively small player back then: its revenue has grown 38-fold since then, its profits 90-fold. (If you want to see how humorously ancient some business news stories from as recently as 2004 read, check this out.)

When you’re done reading Devon’s financials (a spirited way to spend a Friday afternoon), check out the public companies with the 2nd– through 5th-highest profit margins:

  • MGM Resorts, owners of half the fanciest hotels on the Las Vegas Strip, several in China and Vietnam, and a few bottom-of-the-market yet still highly profitable toilets in Detroit and on the Redneck Riviera.
  • VISA, the favorite creditor of personal finance bloggers across the country.
  • Corning, who probably made the glass your phone is encased in.
  • Gilead Sciences, makers of antiviral drugs. Tamiflu is their most famous one.

Admit it. You’ve never heard of at least one of those companies, and never gave the others a second thought.

We’re not going to do all the work for you. That’s part of the reward. Go to the general-purpose finance site of your choice (our favorite is Yahoo! Finance). Read the quarterly and annual financials, available to everyone, and take a freaking risk that your 401(k) doesn’t offer.

Columns of numbers. God, that sounds like a party.

Do you have to read interoffice memos? Or employee handbooks? Or TPS reports? What the hell’s the difference? Aside from how reading financial statements can make you money. You like money, right?

I don’t know how to interpret them.

Sure you do. Read this first.

You should all be rich, or at least upwardly mobile. The resources are at your disposal, waiting to be capitalized upon. The research is so easy even that dippy, chunky gal from So Over Debt can do it. (Mmm…dippy and chunky.) Stop reusing your paper towels and do something remunerative with your time. You’re welcome.

What Makes A Stock Drop Like A Hailstone?

NOTE I: 

Welcome to our ProBlogger readers, wondering what you stumbled upon and whether it applies to you. (Unless you’re a trust-fund brat, it does.) This is the one personal finance blog that will not only help you build wealth, but periodically enrage you while doing so. More here

NOTE II: 

To our regular readers who didn’t understand the previous paragraph, we wrote a piece on ProBlogger. Does it apply to you? Absolutely it does! It’s the detailed explanation of why we don’t allow comments on the site. If you want to contact us, try Twitter. Or Facebook.

_______________________________________________________________________

Let’s look at Monday’s biggest percentage losers, among companies with market capitalizations of at least $1 billion:

Multiple choice quiz time. What single event could cause a company’s stock to lose 28% in a day?

  1. CEO strips naked, runs into local TV studio during 5 pm newscast.
  2. Company executives plead guilty to multiple counts of fraud and embezzlement.
  3. Customers develop necrotizing fasciitis after touching company’s product.
  4. Lawsuits, or the threat thereof. And government regulation, or the promise of same.

Based near Grand Rapids, Michigan, Gentex makes auto-dimming rear view mirrors, and rear cameras for you people who think clueless children riding on tricycles behind parked cars are worth saving. Gentex also makes dimmer switches that are supposed to replace the shades on airplane windows. The company got its start in the 1970s by selling smoke alarms.

A month ago, Gentex got sued by a competitor who claimed that Gentex infringed on a patent for improved car headlamps.

Furthermore, Gentex was banking on the promise of those dead and dismembered children. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration was supposed to mandate rear cameras on all new cars, an obvious windfall for market leader Gentex. And an obvious hassle for the rest of us, who’d each be paying $200 or so more for a new car. But the NHTSA hasn’t made a decision yet, and doesn’t plan to until the end of the year. (As for what backover accidents have to do with a government bureaucracy whose name implies a mandate for highway traffic, we’re not sure.)

Next up is DeVry, which announced that it’s getting harder to lure students. For one reason, the other for-profit colleges are ramping up admissions. Also, after decades of cluelessness, traditional colleges are figuring out that they can offer online education without compromising their precious accreditation.

Bruker is a German manufacturer of x-ray machines, spectrometers and stuff. Bruker committed the least forgivable sin of all, failing to meet analysts’ expectations. A single disappointing earnings report led to Monday’s fall, illustrated here:

 

Elan is an Irish drugmaker. Why did its shares fall by 1/6? One word. Bapineuzumab! Or if you prefer, C6466H10018N1734O2026S44. 

It’s an Alzheimer’s treatment, and it hasn’t done so well in recent trials. Alzheimer’s patients didn’t respond any better to bapineuzumab than they did to placebos, even among the patients who thought the placebos were jelly beans and tried to shove them in their ears. Elan produced bapineuzumab in conjunction with Eli Lilly, Johnson & Johnson and Pfizer (OMG collusion!) all of which took smaller if still significant hits.

And Lexmark you’ve probably heard of. Based out of Lexington, Kentucky, they make printers. (And would presumably be named “Virginmark” if they were based out of Virginia Beach. Not funny? Go to hell.) Lexmark got wounded by the same problem that hit Bruker – either weak results or unduly optimistic analysis by the forecasters.

Lexmark’s 3rd-quarter profits were 75-85¢ a share. This for a stock that trades around $18. In a vacuum, that sounds pretty good. In a world where analysts have determined that Lexmark should have made 89¢ a share this quarter, it’s cause for panic. Fleeting panic, anyway.

What’s the point? 2 points, actually:

  • It’s still a marathon and not a sprint. Unless you’re 98 years old, in which case we take it back, it’s a sprint.
  • Don’t let analysts make decisions for you.

Meeting projections is what Soviet central planners did. A relatively free economy doesn’t lend itself to narrow projections, especially among independent analysts to whom a public company is an abstraction, a prospectus, a series of symbols.

If your question is which stocks to avoid, understand that a stock only becomes worthless when the market renders the underlying company obsolete (Research in Motion, any minute now), or if it turns out that the emperor never had any clothes to begin with (Enron). And dying companies don’t die suddenly, at least not on run-of-the-mill news like one of many new products not doing well in tests. Or 3rd-party expectations not being met.

Gentex remains a market leader, and the NHTSA’s refusal to mandate rear cameras seems like a mere deferment, rather than a policy change. (“What? You just want children to die?!”)

Elan is still in a burgeoning industry, one that won’t be going anywhere until we learn how to genetically engineer babies in the womb. Lexmark is still profitable, and trading at barely 4 times earnings. (At a 3-year nadir, no less. Just like Gentex.)

DeVry has an attractive price-to-earnings ratio too, under 7, and it’s easy to see its low price (a 7-year nadir) as a buying opportunity. But it’s also the only company on the list of today’s biggest losers whose business model might be getting rapidly outdated. (Apollo Group, the parent company of the University of Phoenix, is in a similar position.)

DeVry enrolment is down 20% from last year, which we’re taking as a good sign – fewer people will spend a semester at night school when there’s the possibility of actually working instead. For-profit graduates are also learning, for lack of a better word, that a DeVry degree in justice administration or business communications just doesn’t mean what it used to.

(Which is a joke, of course. It never meant anything.)

Traditional colleges don’t have that problem. They’ve managed to convince kids and parents that there are irreplaceable benefits to a college education, and that belief is a hard one to uproot. Furthermore, traditional colleges have endowments, legacies, and football programs that make money without having to pay the players. Also, such colleges don’t have shareholders. If the University of South Florida (or more aptly, Penn State) had a board of directors instead of regents, the liquidation would have started a while ago.

Which isn’t to make this a jeremiad against higher education. We do that often enough as it is. Instead, we implore to never invest without thinking. And to understand the difference between a daily blip that’s ultimately meaningless, one that will soon be forgotten; and the recognition of a major shift in a particular economic sector.

THINK. While you’re at it, stay emotionless. If you’re among the poor unfortunates who own Gentex stock, think of today as an opportunity to engage in some dollar-cost averaging. If we’d lost on DeVry stock (or on Apollo Group), we’d bail.

Control Your Cash’s 6 Axioms For Building Wealth And Thus Saving You The Trouble Of Buying Our Book.

 

Why is he smiling? No debt. You should be so diligent.

 

We’re going to go an entire week without writing about what a waste a college education (almost always) is. Don’t worry, we’ll beat that drum again soon enough, probably next Wednesday.

It’s time for us to embrace that old standby of the uninspired blogger – the list post! 5 Ways to Save At The Grocery Store. 8 Financial Mistakes First-Time Parents Make. 17 Cheap Graduation Gifts. 432 Tired Ways To Write A Blog Post.

We’ll call this one Control Your Cash’s 6 Axioms For Building Wealth And Thus Saving You The Trouble Of Buying Our Book.

1. Don’t Have A Budget, Have A Ledger.

Creating a household budget is a waste of time. If you earmark $423 for groceries in a given month, and you’re at $454 with 2 days to go, are you going to starve yourself just to prove a point?

Or, if you happen to be under budget as the month is ending, then what? Do you replace the tilapia in your cart with Chinook salmon just because your numbers allow you to? Even if you’d rather eat tilapia?

We hear this constantly: “I can’t believe how big my VISA bill is. What happened? There must be some sort of mistake.” But VISA didn’t make a mistake. You did. You bought too much and you didn’t think about how you were going to pay for it.

Have a ledger means be conscious of every dollar you’re spending. Track them. There are smartphone apps for this, Mint has a good one. Don’t have a smartphone? Buy a pocketbook, they’re like 49¢ or something. Doing this eliminates the possibility of seemingly insurmountable expenses “creeping up on you”. They can’t, not if you know that they’re coming. Even if you’re not so meticulous that you enter every expense in said app, that monthly credit card statement should never, ever make your jaw drop.

2. Stop rationalizing.

You really wanted that Croatian vacation and/or theme wedding? You feel like you’re entitled because you hate your job and your mom’s being a bitch? Wow. It’s like you and we are different species.

Your finances should be the least emotional facet of your existence. Save the emotion for the non-financial parts of your life.

It’s fine to want (and even to buy) extravagant stuff. An otherwise prudent friend of ours dropped $2,462.35 for a couple of nosebleed seats to Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final. A lifelong L.A. Kings fan (a legitimate one, not a bandwagoner), it was perhaps his only-ever chance to see his team clinch the Stanley Cup at home.

They lost. No big deal, they ended up winning the Cup anyway, but our friend didn’t get to watch the clinching moment live. (Had he wanted to, he could have spent a similar amount, probably a little more, for tickets to Game 6. And flown across the country for Game 5, just to cover every base.)

Was that a waste of $2,462.35? Maybe to us, but not to him. This story isn’t an argument for spending extravagant amounts on ephemeral things. Our friend is a smart guy with a big cushion who could withstand the loss. He weighed the risk of the New Jersey Devils winning, paid cash, and still enjoyed 3 hours’ worth of Stanley Cup Final action. He’s not going to be spending the next 7 years financing his tickets at 19.9% interest, which would be unequivocally dumb.

3. Unless you’re going to major in the hardest of hard sciences, pure or applied, or possibly in corporate finance, don’t go to college.

Sorry, we had to mention it. We’ve broken it down in greater detail before, but not only is college a colossal financial expenditure, it’s an enormous time commitment. 4 years of your life and tens of thousands of your (or your parents’, or the taxpayers’) dollars? So you can spend decades paying off the loans? Which brings us to our next point:

4. Only incur debt if you have a plan behind it. A plan that pencils out.

Borrowing $200,000 might sound like a bad idea in and of itself, but what are you borrowing it for? To have a stable place to live for a fixed period (and simultaneously avoid paying rent)? Going into debt to buy a house makes sense, most of the time. Look at the alternatives. Borrowing money might set off a frugality switch in your head, but would you rather spend 30 years renting and knowing that you won’t recoup a penny of your housing costs? While enriching the person who does own the place where you live?

And that’s shelter: as high as #2 on the hit parade of necessities behind food, maybe #3 behind clothing unless you live in the tropics.

Incurring debt for other reasons is – we’re running out of synonyms for “idiotic”. All your life, you dreamed of having a storybook wedding. Great. Do you want to spend the next 10 years paying off one memorable afternoon?

Some people are going to take that literally. Of course no one wants to spend an extended period paying for something fleeting (and that has a 50% chance of ending in failure), but if you incur the expense, you have to pay it. We come out of the womb understanding this inherently, but the sophisticated and rationalizing brain knows better.

5. Look at each transaction from the other party’s perspective.

Your humble blogger had a (dumb) high school finance teacher who believed that for someone to make money, someone else had to lose money. Were that true, it would mean that all of human civilization has been one big zero-sum game. And that the accumulation of wealth in the world today – all the ocean freighters, skyscrapers, communications satellites, power plants etc. – is no greater than it was when the only items of value in existence were Smilodon pelts.

Not to turn this into an Economics 101 lecture, but exchanges benefit everyone. However, they don’t necessarily benefit everyone uniformly. Sometimes you run into a seller who’s desperate to do a deal, or a buyer with the same problem. In that case, enjoy your bargain. Other times, the one who needs to make a deal and has time or other circumstances working against him is…you. Don’t be that person.

6, the big one. Buy assets, sell liabilities.

Do this consistently and you’ll build wealth no matter how stupid or lazy you are.

401(k) contributions are assets, defining them as we do as something that will help your wealth grow. Extravagant dinners are liabilities.

We should elaborate. You can’t sell extravagant dinners unless you own the restaurant, but from a consumer’s perspective you can avoid buying them.

That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t cut loose and enjoy what life has to offer, every once in a while. It just means that if you do so, you’ll be forgoing future wealth and investment potential. You need to weigh this stuff, assess it intelligently. Don’t buy what you can’t afford, which is so fundamental it barely counts as advice. Mark Zuckerberg gets to spend more than you do. No offense, but at least at this point he’s entitled to more Caribbean cruises and country club memberships than you are.

But don’t fret. In turn, you get to spend more than that hobo who stands on the street corner every morning.

Unless you’re in debt. Then the hobo (assuming his net worth is 0) gets to spend more than you.

STOP.

If you read that last couple of paragraphs and your internal monologue is:

“Who are they to tell me what to do? I deserve it. Life’s too short”,

send us a request and we’ll fix it so that your IP can’t access our site anymore.

There are a million analogies we could make here, but people hate to face reality. If you want to spend profligately, and then complain about your financial situation, you’re no different than a chain-smoker who considers it a random tear in the cosmos that he’s the unlucky stiff who ended up with lung cancer.

One more time: build assets. Sell liabilities. Get in the other person’s head. Attack debt like the household pest it is. Don’t take on expenses with only an unformed (and uninformed) idea of how you’ll profit from them. And buy our book.