DOW GAINS .0000000000000002%

Alright, we took a little decimal license with that one. The actual headline that appeared on Fox Business Network’s After The Bell was “DOW GAINS .02%.” It should have appeared on WGSC, better known to Howard Stern aficionados as “the Who-Gives-A-Sh*t Channel.”

This is all noise, zero signal. Every daily change in the Dow is. Even the historic ones are. Every daily change in just about anything is.

As self-aware humans, we plan. That’s largely a good thing. The act of, say, enrolling in college happens with the understanding that 4 or more years down the road, and decades beyond, it’ll start paying off. Even the simpler act of planting a tree is done with a nod to a future that the planter might never be alive to see. Having kids goes on this list too, of course.

Yet for some reason, when regarding the stock market, we become mayflies. It’s as if we’re thinking, “But if the Dow fell 20 points this morning, how am I going to be able to retire at 7 p.m. and live off my investments from then until midnight?” If you want, you can blame the journalists for this: they have to talk about something, and the stock market is pretty much guaranteed to close at some level on every day that it’s open. (Curiously, the days that the Dow doesn’t close at any level are the truly newsworthy ones. 9/11, for instance.)

There’s too much information in every realm, not just finance and business. The only parts of the daily news that always contain legitimately important and timely information are sports and weather. The fluctuation in Archer Daniels Midland stock or the price of gold means nothing to the average investor over the course of a day, a week, a month, even longer. To illustrate the point, here’s the market level at yesterday’s close of business:

5 years

No, wait. This is the market level at yesterday’s final bell: 1 day

Oops. Sorry. No, it’s this:

5 day

Wait wait wait wait wait. Swear to God, this is it:2 years

In ascending order of length, the periods represented by these graphs are day, a week, 2 years and 5 years. But do you have any idea which is which?

(Answer: 5 years, a day, a week, 2 years.)

We removed the numbers on the vertical axis, and there’s no sense of scale, but that’s not the point. Whether you believe in a “permanent bull market” or not, a continually rising line isn’t visible in any of these charts. The 1-day changes seem considerably less abrupt than the 1-week changes, which would be unlikely in a rational world.

Tune out. Here’s a challenge, with absolutely no reward from us if you meet it: examine your portfolio no more than quarterly. Some wags would replace “quarterly” with “annually”, but we’re not at that level quite yet. What happens hour-to-hour is of zero consequence, and what happens over a period of weeks isn’t much more critical.

Look at other investments, ones whose price isn’t as easy to calculate. You bought your house in the hope that it’ll appreciate in value, right? If your $150,000 three-bedroom gets assessed at $149,703, what are you going to do? Sell sell sell? Pray for a bump? Or live your live confident that your house is an asset with a permanent tangible value, and that should you ever want to sell it, today’s prices will bear no relationship to those future prices?

Unplug. Read a book. Play with your kids. Go cycling. Whatever you do, don’t fool yourself into thinking that exposure to an onslaught of financial information is necessarily going to educate you. While you’re at it you ought to stop reading other personal finance blogs and just concentrate on this one. And read it largely for entertainment. (Which makes it sound as though our advice is unserious or unimportant, which is untrue. We meant entertainment in the literal sense: be entertained, while absorbing subject matter that can often be dry depending on who’s presenting it.)

It’s a cliché, but a valid one: for the most part, you make your money going into an investment, not out of it. Buy undervalued assets, and wait for them to appreciate. A stock bought at the top of the market – for example, Enron at its localized zenith – is not an undervalued asset. For a more contemporary and less notorious example, take Amazon, which is close to its current (and all-time) peak of 276½ or so. A fixation on short-term movements, no matter how drastic, will rapidly drive you insane. Considering your presumed lifespan, you want any eventual insanity to manifest itself as slowly and methodically as possible.

The average daily movement in the Dow is less than .026%. Or as CNBC might put it, “DOW UP .026%!!!!!!!!!!!!!” Journalists, even financial ones, are not renowned for having perspective. You’re smarter than that.

A Thrilling Multimodal Friday Ride

Transforming the world, 33' at a time

Transforming the world, 33′ at a time

 

The Dow Jones Company creates dozens of indices. By far the most recognized and quoted of those is its Industrial average, 30 stocks that are supposed to comprise a representative cross-section of the American economy. Dow’s 2nd– and 3rd-most noted indices are its Transportation and Utilities averages, one of which we’ll discuss today and the other we’ll talk about Wednesday unless something more exciting comes along.

First off, why is the New York Stock Exchange stuck in the 19th century? Why “Industrials”, “Transportation” and “Utilities”? Shouldn’t they have given way to something like “Telecommunications”, “Software”, and “Health Care” by now?

Well, because industry (however you define it), moving stuff and people around, and keeping the lights on are still pretty important.

The Transportation index was created 129 years ago. Originally it was nothing more than the total of the stock prices of 9 railroad companies, a steamship company and Western Union. With the exception of Western Union – which is now exclusively in the business of transferring money – and Union Pacific, every one of those companies is defunct.

Of course, Dow Jones added and subtracted other companies to and from the index over the years. Much like its Industrial counterpart, the Transportation index consists of the prices of several (30 for Industrials, 20 for Transportation) stocks, summed and multiplied by a constant. The Transportation companies are as follows:

  • 5 airlines
  • 4 trucking companies
  • 4 railroads
  • 3 deliverers
  • 2 shippers (as in ships)
  • 1 rail lessor
  • 1 truck lessor.

The airlines, you’re probably familiar with. Delta, United, Southwest, JetBlue and Alaska, which are respectively America’s 1st-, 2nd-, 3rd-, 6th– and 7th-largest by passenger volume. 4th is American, which filed for Chapter 11 last year and was thus replaced on the index by Alaska. 5th is US Airways, which filed for bankruptcy in 2001 and again 3 years later.

The trucking companies have a more direct effect on your life than the airlines do, yet it’s doubtful you’ve heard of more than a couple.

C.H. Robinson, based in the Twin Cities, is what they call a “3rd party logistics” company. They don’t actually own trucks, but instead agree to ship customers’ freight using other companies’ trucks. And ships and planes. Also railcars, which C.H. Robinson does own. But the vast majority of C.H. Robinson’s revenue, $7 of every $8, derives from trucking. Landstar, headquartered in Jacksonville, is similar to C.H. Robinson in that it doesn’t own vehicles. Two of the other trucking companies, Ann Arbor, Michigan’s Con-Way and J.B. Hunt (based in Northwestern Arkansas), you’ve seen proof of up close if you’ve ever driven on an interstate.

The 3 delivery companies probably need no description, or at least 2 of them don’t – FedEx and UPS. The 3rd one is Expeditors, a Seattle-based company that specializes in international cargo shipments. (Is that redundant? “Cargo shipments”? Could we just say “cargo”? And why do shipments often involve a car while cargo involves a ship? Also, why do we park on a driveway and drive…)

The railroads on the Dow transport cargo, rather than passengers, because a) there’s a government-mandated passenger railroad monopoly in this country and b) that monopoly loses obscene amounts of money. They include the nation’s largest railroad (and, as we pointed out, the only one that’s been on the DJTA since Day 1) –Union Pacific, which is headquartered in Omaha. If you live east of the Mississippi, you’ve probably never heard of Union Pacific. Trust us, it’s huge. Vice versa for Jacksonville-based CSX, whose operations transverse the eastern United States and select parts of Ontario and Quebec. Crossing much of the same territory is Norfolk Southern, which covers the eastern states save New England and Florida, and whose western terminus is in Kansas City. Speaking of which, Kansas City Southern is the final railroad, with operations in the south central United States and much of central Mexico.

The two shipping companies are Matson and Kirby. Matson, based in Oakland, has one core and lucrative business – shipping stuff to and from Hawaii. Matson also ships to Guam, Micronesia, and a few ports in China. Kirby, with operations based in Houston, is the nation’s premier tank barge operator. They transport oil throughout the Mississippi and its tributaries, along the Gulf Coast, and to Alaska and Hawaii (the freak states.)

That leaves two, including the rail lessor, Chicago’s own General American Transportation. They lease railcars throughout the U.S. and Europe, and operate American Steamship, which crisscrosses the Great Lakes.

The truck lessor is Ryder, based in Miami. Yeah, they rent trucks, but they’re also “a FORTUNE® 500 provider of leading-edge transportation, logistics and supply chain management solutions. “

(God, does anyone working in the communications department of any major corporation know how to, y’know, communicate?) That means Ryder leases commercial fleets. The company also manages warehouses and drivers for companies that own their own trucks but want someone competent to handle the (sigh, hate this phrase) “supply chain”.

Which ones should you invest in? Primarily Kirby, but that’s not the point. We’re just trying to avail you a little of how a lot of the stuff you take for granted helps the economy roll. As the XXL t-shirt says, “If you bought it, a trucker brought it”. And picked it up off a dock where it was delivered by a container ship that was loaded from a railroad.

New Kid On The Block. Or In Town. Whatever.

Least apt company spokesman ever

 

If you’ve paid even scant attention to the financial news in the last few weeks, all you’ve heard about is QUANTITATIVE EASING this and APPLE STOCK MOVEMENT that. Meanwhile the Dow switched out a component, something it does less than annually on average, and it barely made a sound.

At the risk of insulting our readers who already know this, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is nothing more than the share prices of 30 particular major stocks, added together and multiplied by a constant. The 30 companies represented aren’t precisely the 30 largest in the nation, but they’re close enough. When Dow Jones & Company determine that a company is no longer fit or worthy to comprise part of the DJIA, that company gets booted and another one replaces it.

Recent companies to get demoted from the DJIA include taxpayer charity cases American International Group and General Motors. The most recent company to fall off the index had a legitimate extenuating circumstance, however.

Kraft Foods replaced AIG 4 years ago. Earlier this year Kraft, maker of everything from Jell-O to Miracle Whip to Maxwell House coffee, announced that it would be splitting itself in two. To summarize and greatly simplify the restructuring, the international unit is now called Mondelez. The American grocery business maintains the Kraft name. Both companies now trade on NASDAQ.

Which left a vacancy, to be filled by UnitedHealth. (Yes, Microsoft Word, we did spell it correctly. It’s not our fault that medial capitals are unavoidable these days.) UnitedHealth is a managed-care company out of Minneapolis, founded 35 years ago. By revenue it’s the 22nd-biggest public company in the United States, almost twice the size of the formerly 50th-place Kraft. By profit, UnitedHealth is 29th (the erstwhile Kraft was 43rd.)

Why a boring HMO parent and not something cool like Apple? The chairman of the index committee says that technology stocks are “well-represented” already. He might have a point – there’s IBM, Microsoft, Cisco, and maybe you can consider AT&T and Verizon to be technological. Even the beleaguered Hewlett-Packard, whose stock is at an inflation-adjusted 20-year low, remains part of the Dow.

What does this mean for the ordinary investor? (That’s you, Sweet Boy or Babycakes.) Well, among other things it means that certain stock funds that mirror the Dow now have to have a position in UnitedHealth. But UnitedHealth is a mammoth corporation that said funds probably already had a piece of anyway. UnitedHealth has gained about 10% since it joined the Dow last month, but as we all know, or should know, a 10% change in price over so brief a period means almost nothing. UnitedHealth has been aggressive since joining the Dow, recently spending $5 billion to buy the largest health insurer in Brazil.

Which you can interpret as a tiny bet on Mitt Romney winning the presidency and, if we’re to believe his campaign promises, proposing to have Congress repeal ObamaCare. Or you can interpret it as a bet on President Obama being reelected, which would mean that American managed health care companies are going to need to expand into foreign markets as socialism does to their industry what it’s done to every industry it’s ever touched.

UnitedHealth went public in 1990 and enjoyed the kind of steady, constant growth that most prudent executives would love to see their companies emulate. The stock topped out in late 2005, lost 2/3 of its value by 2009, and has since rebounded to near that previous high. UNH trades at about 11½ times earnings, which is slightly less than contemporary Cardinal Health (13). The “target estimate” for UNH’s stock price is a 20% increase next year, but then the “target girlfriend” for your average World of Warcraft player is something more grandiose than what reality might offer up.

Net income for UNH has increased from year to year, and the company currently boasts a 5% profit margin. Cardinal Health’s is 1%. Retained earnings are high and increasing, albeit not at a tremendous rate – certainly not as fast as revenues and profits. The company has no treasury stock to speak of. On balance, taken together those are slightly positive signs for investors looking to buy and hold.

But you’re not going to buy UnitedHealth stock anyway, are you? No, you’re going to keep funding your 401(k) and electing to receive the employer match if yours offers it. That’s fine, too. UnitedHealth’s biggest single shareholder is Fidelity Investments, which owns 7½% of the company. That’s $4.4 billion worth of UnitedHealth, which is an awful lot to be distributing among Fidelity’s various funds. And among those, Fidelity’s Low-Priced Stock Fund holds the most – about 30% of Fidelity’s UnitedHealth holdings. UnitedHealth is also the biggest component of said fund, which is a slightly different superlative. And, the Low-Priced Stock Fund is up 26% from a year ago. It’s doubled since 2009 – just like the stock market itself. Will investing in a fund that predominantly features UnitedHealth make you rich? Probably not. Becoming one of UnitedHealth’s approximately 16,000 shareholders of record might.