Money Won’t Find You. You Have To Meet It Halfway.

Emulate this cat’s investment strategy, if not his look

 

The CYC principals work at home and thus employ the Fox Business Network as much of the soundtrack (and in our male half’s case, the visual stimulus) for our daily lives. While listening and desultorily watching, we hear the same corporations mentioned again and again. Lately it’s been the ones you’d expect: Facebook and its declining stock price, Apple and its historic book value, Nike (about to release an expensive new shoe), Best Buy (just hired a new CEO, the equivalent of the Doña Paz hiring a new captain after crashing into the Vector), etc.

All of them are famous, with much of the companies’ values deriving from their brand names. That’s why they’re featured so prominently in the media; or perhaps vice versa.

Name recognition is, without question, the worst possible criterion for determining the worth of a stock. In our above examples we have:

  • A pop-culture leviathan that’s effectively eliminated all its competition, and an advertising vehicle that millions of people lock their eyeballs onto daily.
  • A iconic company that not only makes elegantly designed and famously reliable gadgets and computers, but one that’s discovered how to sell slightly upgraded versions of said gadgets to the same loyal customers year after year.
  • Another icon with a devoted following (albeit slightly less devoted than Apple’s), and which, like Apple, sells a lifestyle and a state of mind as much as it sells products.
  • A retail chain whose death throes are almost audible. A decade ago, it was a legitimately cool place to buy toys: today, it’s a prehistoric version of Amazon. Or of the Apple Store.

Publicity is important for entertainers and their ilk. For corporations looking to make money in the long term (and their shareholders), being in the public eye could not be less important. Groupon has gotten more headlines than Cardinal Health every single day of the former’s existence, but it’s the latter that turned a $1 billion profit last year. And sold $100 billion worth of product (drugs, mostly). And employs 30,000 people. Cardinal Health held its initial public offering in 1983, back when Groupon’s managers and directors were barely alive. But there’s a larger point here than comparing daily deal sites to stodgy old pharmaceutical firms.

Listen. Investing is not supposed to be fun.

Check that. Investing should be lots of fun. It’s a far less laborious (and multiplicative) way to build wealth than is working for 8 hours a day. Maybe we’re unclear on how to define “fun”.

We’ve told you in the past not to buy a stock just because you happen to be a customer. But we can do better than just giving you subtractive advice, telling you what to avoid.

Embrace boredom. Invest in workable, quietly successful companies that the average mouth-breather traipsing his way down the street wouldn’t think twice about.

You know what publicly traded company has the highest profit margins? That is, among all of them? Apple is tops among the ones we’ve mentioned so far, but it’s only 24th among all public companies.

Devon Energy! You remember Devon Energy, right? Of course you don’t, you were too busy reading about that chick with the jacked-up teeth getting engaged to that Nickelback guy.

Devon Energy is a natural gas/oil producer based out of Oklahoma City. They own pipelines that are mostly in Texas but that stretch all the way to Illinois. Devon has operations as far north as the British Columbia-Northwest Territories border.

And you’ve never heard of them. The stock is trading at around $60, which is barely 10 times annual earnings. Last year each share paid 80¢ worth of dividends. Analysts think it’ll hit $77 a year from now. Both revenue and gross profit have increased 20% annually over the last few years, the kind of sustained growth that most better-publicized companies can only fantasize about.

(Notice we didn’t tell you what Devon Energy stock has done in the past year. That’s irrelevant to people who don’t own the stock, which presumably includes you.)

None of your friends will be impressed if you tell them you bought a standard lot of Devon Energy. Rather, they’ll get bored and want to leave the room. Fine. Let them.

Opportunities don’t go out of their way to get your attention. Never forget this. Facebook stock was never going to bring you untold riches. The newsworthy IPOs that would don’t exist.

What about Google?

Fine, you got us. Also, retroactively picking stocks is cheating. Google was enjoying healthy if not tropospheric profit margins from Day 1, unlike Facebook. Google was a relatively small player back then: its revenue has grown 38-fold since then, its profits 90-fold. (If you want to see how humorously ancient some business news stories from as recently as 2004 read, check this out.)

When you’re done reading Devon’s financials (a spirited way to spend a Friday afternoon), check out the public companies with the 2nd– through 5th-highest profit margins:

  • MGM Resorts, owners of half the fanciest hotels on the Las Vegas Strip, several in China and Vietnam, and a few bottom-of-the-market yet still highly profitable toilets in Detroit and on the Redneck Riviera.
  • VISA, the favorite creditor of personal finance bloggers across the country.
  • Corning, who probably made the glass your phone is encased in.
  • Gilead Sciences, makers of antiviral drugs. Tamiflu is their most famous one.

Admit it. You’ve never heard of at least one of those companies, and never gave the others a second thought.

We’re not going to do all the work for you. That’s part of the reward. Go to the general-purpose finance site of your choice (our favorite is Yahoo! Finance). Read the quarterly and annual financials, available to everyone, and take a freaking risk that your 401(k) doesn’t offer.

Columns of numbers. God, that sounds like a party.

Do you have to read interoffice memos? Or employee handbooks? Or TPS reports? What the hell’s the difference? Aside from how reading financial statements can make you money. You like money, right?

I don’t know how to interpret them.

Sure you do. Read this first.

You should all be rich, or at least upwardly mobile. The resources are at your disposal, waiting to be capitalized upon. The research is so easy even that dippy, chunky gal from So Over Debt can do it. (Mmm…dippy and chunky.) Stop reusing your paper towels and do something remunerative with your time. You’re welcome.

You Idiots Deserve To Be Poor

"I want to be young, smart and successful! So I'll do it vicariously through these people."

From Bloomberg:

Ryan Cefalu, who lives with his wife and two kids in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, saw in Facebook’s much-anticipated initial public offering a chance to buffer his retirement fund. His expectations fizzled along with the stock within the first minutes of trading.
“It’s disheartening to know that things get over-hyped,” Cefalu, a 34-year-old data-systems manager who spent about $4,000 on the stock, said in an interview.

Let’s assume that quote isn’t taken out of context, although it’s hard to imagine what context it could be taken out of. The most overhyped IPO in history, and Mr. Cefalu is expressing surprise at what, exactly? He’s implying that he bought the stock before it was overhyped, or that said hype has something to do with his losses.

Here’s another fool who deserved to soon be parted from her money:

“I thought it would be fun to get in on the initial frenzy,” said Linda Lantz, an online marketer in Granite Bay, California, who bought 100 shares. “Now it makes me think ‘Oh God, should I bail or is it going to come back?’”

Fun? Where is the fun? Is it inherently “fun” to have a line in your E*Trade account that reads:

100 FB NASDAQ 5-17-2012 $39.84?

If you want fun, go target shooting or buy a kitten. (If you want lots of fun, combine the two.) More to the point, if you’re investing for fun, you’re in even worse shape than a guy who goes into debt to film a movie and then begs for people to cover the expenses.

You invest to make money. Sweet feathery Jesus, how much more obvious a point could this be? Look, we get that an iPad or a Birkin bag conveys something about your status and tells passersby that you want them to think you have disposable income. But Facebook stock? You do know that corporations no longer issue physical certificates, right? You can’t literally show your stock purchase off to people unless, again, you invite them to look at your computer screen while you’re logged into your brokerage account.

Michael McClafferty, a freshman finance major at Michigan State University, saw his “first big investment” turn into a $3,000 loss when he sold the shares at $35.
“I didn’t want to lose more,” McClafferty said. “I didn’t know what to do.”
The 19 year-old student estimates he spent $8,000 more than he wanted to while repeating orders that wouldn’t go through on the first day, and failing to cancel them because of the technical problems.

Anyone want to bet on whether Mr. McClafferty has incurred any student loans? We hope to God that he has rich parents financing the education that he’s getting but that isn’t taking. This would be slightly more forgivable if he were majoring in sociology.

Some out-and-out lying doesn’t hurt, either:

Pat Brogan, a Yahoo! Inc. manager who trades on sites run by E*Trade and Fidelity in her spare time, called the experience of buying Facebook stock the “biggest fiasco” in her 30 years of day trading.

Two points from Ms. Brogan’s debacle. Number 1, no one day-trades for 30 years, for the same reason that no one plays day-Russian Roulette, day-wrestles grizzly bears or day-shoots up heroin for 30 years.

Also, risking your own money in the hopes of returns isn’t something you do “in (your) spare time.” It requires a little more intellectual commitment and wariness than do quilting or playing Gran Turismo 5.

Alright, a 3rd point. What was she expecting? Of the thousands of equities she could have chosen to purchase last week, she picked the one with zero history as a public company. If you’d asked her “Why’d you buy Facebook today, instead of Hewlett-Packard or Time Warner?”, what do you think she would have answered? Or any other sheep who thinks investing is about status and internal feelings of hipness rather than making a mother-loving profit?

Because they thought they could beat the system. They’d be the ones to buy Facebook at (its opening price + x), then sell it hours later at (its opening price + x + y). Which is to say, they had to know they wouldn’t be the absolute first in line, right? And that the people who did get in earlier were entitled to their own profit, right? Still, Ms. Brogan and her compatriots had it all figured out. They’d get in early enough to allow those preceding investors their profit, then enjoy their own as they cashed out to the next round of lemming/piranha hybrids on the horizon.

Oh, who are we (and they) kidding? The day traders and speculators who tried to buy Facebook stock as early as possible would have held onto it had it risen. Fortunately for them, or at least for us, it didn’t.

But no, the alleged “30-year day trader”, the college kid, and the Louisianan looking to settle his retirement in one day know more than the insiders do.

The chance of you purchasing Facebook stock at the appropriate minute on the day of its IPO, then selling it within a day or two at a substantial profit, is nonexistent. First, you don’t know as much as the stock’s underwriters do, and second, if you’re greedy enough to try and time the market like that, you’re not going to be satisfied with a modest $4 or $5 gain. You’ll want that baby to rise to hundreds of dollars a share, just as AOL (now around $28) and Yahoo! ($15 or so) did. Otherwise you’re alleging that the avarice that got you there in the first place can be kept in check at certain points. Come on.

We do way too many sports analogies on this site, but that’s not going to stop us from doing another one. If you sink a half-court shot to win a Kia Sorrento at halftime of an NBA game, even if you hit nothing but net, the home team’s general manager is not going to offer you a contract. Not even at the league minimum. You got lucky. The ability to consistently hit half-court shots is as rare, and as practically useless, as the ability to time when to get into and when to get out of IPOs. We say “practically” useless because you can’t build an offense around 3-point attempts taken 47’ from the basket, any more than you can build an investing strategy around knowing when to board and disembark the IPO train.

Twitterer @DubaiAtNight, who was one of the most insightful commenters on Control Your Cash back when we allowed comments, put it best:

Imagine if had been Koch Industries that went public. (As if. The Koch brothers aren’t stupid.) The biggest private company in the world then opens itself up to general investors, and a combination of nefarious underwriting and technical glitches leads to a bunch of unprepared dilettantes losing their money. The U.S. Senate, the President and the SEC wouldn’t be able to land on Koch management fast enough. The 1%, keeping the 99% down, etc., etc. Meanwhile, if a tousle-headed 20-something with an affinity for hoodies is at the helm, and if the product in question is something commonplace, benign, and beyond most people’s technical understanding, no big deal.

Investing isn’t a freaking game. It can be fun and rewarding, but a) not over the course of an afternoon and b) it takes work. Here, read this and step back from the maelstrom. You can thank us when you’re rich.