OMG THE MARKETS TOOK A HIT TODAY

No, they didn’t.

The markets are among the least volatile things in commerce.

EVERY trader looks like this, all the time. He could have just found out that his daughter got engaged and he'd still look the same way. "Crap, now I have to pay for a g.d. wedding."

Last Thursday, the Dow fell 11 points, which is a big enough story to lead the business news. Considering that the Dow opened the day at 12,037, that means it lost a crushing .09% of its value.

Granted, that means that at that rate, the Dow’s entire value would be worthless by May 2015.

By the same logic, the temperature in Fairbanks, AK was 85º on July 9 and -15º this morning. At that rate, by May 2015 Fairbanks will hit absolute zero, everything will turn solid and motion will stop.

These things are cyclical. Everything rebounds, and it usually doesn’t take that long.

Biggest Dow % losses of the last 75 years
October 19, 198722.6
October 26, 19878.0
October 15, 20087.9
October 18, 19377.8
December 1, 20087.7
October 9, 20087.3
October 27, 19977.2
September 17, 20017.1
September 29, 20087.0

The chance that 6 of the 7 biggest losses of all time would happen in the same 19-day annual period are 145,337 to 1.

Why was October 19, 1987, a/k/a Black Monday, such an outlier?

Two major reasons.

The market was unduly, maybe artificially high that morning, fueled by speculation that had kept the Dow rising all summer. The Dow was actually higher at the end of 1987 than at the start.

Also, it took the traders a while to get used to new technology. This was the first time that firms could program computers to take certain orders at certain prices. Not only that, but for the first time brokers could now process orders contingent on what level other stocks were selling at. A shareholder of railroad operator XYZ could order his broker to sell if railroad stock JKL fell to a certain price. We take this for granted now, but back then the traders were still only recently removed from executing every trade by hand.

What happened a week later?

Overworry. The traders were reeling from the previous week’s fall, plus all weekend long they were anxious to get to work and act conservatively – i.e. get into cash and not be part of the volatility. That works fine for one trader, but when everyone does it, you get the very volatility you were trying to avoid – the human equivalent of cows overgrazing on public lands, then ultimately going hungry.

Same thing. This one is attempting to negotiate with God, swearing to quit snorting coke once and for all if He'll only let the dry cleaner not notice the baggie he left in his suit pocket

What are the chances of 4 of the top 9 losses coming in the same 9-week period in 2008, during which we not only elected a new president, but had one of the two biggest ideological shifts in history between a president and his successor?

283,026,075 to 1. Almost the same as the chances of us choosing a person at random in the United States, and that person turning out to be you.

Does that mean we’re heading to an inevitable future of up-and-down stock prices? Not necessarily, and this will wrap up nicely with one more chart, below.

Look at the numbers. A 7% loss happens about once a decade. People frequently lose 7% of their savings balances – withdrawing $140 when you have $2000 in the account – and rarely feel aghast about it. How is that different than if it happens with any other investment (or in the case of the Dow, a representation of a mere 30 investments of the hundreds of thousands available)?

Oh, one more thing:

Biggest Dow % gains of the last 75 years
4 days after the 6th biggest loss11.1
15 days after that, i.e. 13 days after the 3rd biggest loss10.9
11 days after the biggest loss10.1
3½ months after the 5th biggest loss6.8

If you want to sell your position in a Dow index fund, and you’re worried that it isn’t at a high enough price, wait a couple of weeks.

Here are the top 20 advances and declines of 2010:

May 103.90May 20-3.60
May 272.85May 6-3.20
July 72.82June 4-3.15
June 102.76June 29-2.65
September 12.54February 4-2.61
December 12.27July 16-2.52
June 22.25August 11-2.49
June 152.10January 22-2.09
July 221.99May 4-2.02
August 21.99January 21-2.01
November 41.96April 27-1.90
September 241.86November 16-1.59
October 51.80May 14-1.51
February 161.68October 19-1.48
August 271.65June 22-1.43
November 181.57April 30-1.42
February 91.52June 24-1.41
January 41.50August 19-1.39
July 131.44August 30-1.39
May 121.38May 7-1.33

Just about every large movement (to the extent that these movements are large) is nullified by a comparable movement on the other side of the ledger. If this doesn’t convince you to buy-and-hold, and not obsess over daily market movements, nothing will.

**This post is featured in the cupid edition of the Carnival of Personal Finance**

and

**Baby Boomers Blog Carnival Eightieth Edition**

Meet your new role model, Part III of III

Believed to be negotiating with Brandon. 12 rounds, food money

This is the last installment in our series on Brandon, the $32,000-a-year tycoon who’s the new favorite to be Control Your Cash 2010 Man of the Year. Read the previous couple of posts to find out how he pays his car loans off early, lives in a decent home with positive cash flow, and spends strategically to get the most out of life (which, last we checked, still requires money.) Today, Brandon explains just how he receives that money and what he does with it.

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In sum, I take advantage of cost-savings overlaps, and try to kill a few birds with one stone.  I’ve discovered that I don’t need to buy to be happy. I have never taken advantage of charity, welfare, food stamps, etc. despite being qualified a few times. I never needed them, even when I was 21 and lived out of my car for 6 months.  I was raised middle class (slightly lower to start, then solid middle, slightly upper middle the last bit.) My mother and stepfather were frugal. I never wanted, but they didn’t overspend.  My mom used to talk about how she used to go out with friends and sip a Diet Coke the entire night, and that would be her only expense.* My parents are solidly upper-middle class now, perhaps upper here in the Midwest. Their financial help comes mainly in the form of hand-me-downs, but more recently a new bedroom set and couch when I bought my house (I didn’t need them, but it was nice), and the recent minor vacation stuff.

My mortgage rate is 5¾%. I bought at the worst possible moment in the last 2 years. It goes down to ~4.32% with the credit, although it’s a bit higher due to the delay in receiving the credit. I pencil it in as 4.4%.

I have a Sears credit card, for the credit limit and the very rare Craftsman lifetime warranty tool coupons and sales. I also have a Citi Driver’s Edge card, which Citi no longer offers, but it refunds 3% on gas, groceries and drugs, 1% on everything else, and 1¢/mile on my car).

I’d like to add 2 more cards, for what that’ll do to my FICO score and to avoid having all my eggs in one basket.  One of the likely candidates is a Pentagon Federal Credit Union Promise card, which carries no fees and is useful for foreign travel. I’m also looking for a 2% cash back card. Charles Schwab offered one, then rescinded the offer in April. Fidelity offers one, but I don’t like the way they set it up. Then there’s PerkStreet, which requires me to keep $5000 in my current account. I don’t care for the American Express Blue Cash** structure, so I’m waiting for something else: maybe a rewards card if I do more traveling, e.g. a Starwood American Express.

As for my investments, I’m a fan of Harry Browne and the Permanent Portfolio.

STOP.

Harry Browne (1933-2006) was an investment analyst and the Libertarian candidate for president in 1996 and 2000 (in other words, our kind of guy.) His brainchild, the Permanent Portfolio, involves putting equal amounts of your money in:

I.  an index fund
II. the longest T-bonds you can find, or AAA corporate bonds
III. gold
IV. cash (or its equivalent, short-term T-bills)

Ignore for 3 months. Then, if any class over- or underperformed by 10%, redistribute to maintain the balance.

CONTINUE.

I’m with Vanguard, but they charge a lot to buy bonds and non-Vanguard exchange-traded funds, so I’m looking at Wells Fargo. I have $4k in my Indiana Public Employees Retirement Fund account and $14k in my Roth IRA.  That’s allocated as:

I.  70% Standard & Poor’s 500 index fund
15% small cap value fund
15% emerging markets fund

II. 70% special stable income fund in state plan
30% Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Exchange-Traded fund.

(Ed. Note: That latter item tracks the value of the Barclays Capital U.S. Treasury STRIPS 20-30 Year Equal Par Bond index. That fund invests >80% of its assets in U.S. Treasury securities held in the index. The fund weighs the maturity of each dollar, and tries to keep pace with the index, which usually means maturities of 20-30 years.

U.S. Treasury STRIPS [Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal Securities] are notes, bonds and inflation-protected securities whose interest and principal portions have been separated [“stripped”.] STRIPS work like bonds, selling at a discount and then maturing at face value. They’re formed by investment banks and brokerage firms, rather than sold by the Treasury.)

III. 80% iShares commodity exchange gold trust, which lets you trade gold throughout the day and not have to take physical possession of it.
20% physical.

My cash reserve is the IV leg.  I think we’ll see deflation for the next few years, maybe longer.***

Finally, between my roommate and work, I collect enough cans to pay the utilities. With regard to taxes, I haven’t looked into how to minimize my return, but considering I collect the rent and foreclosure income without having taxes taken out, I have a virtual head start on doing so.

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*The Control Your Cash authors always do this, despite not having to. Enriching taverns ≠ Controlling Your Cash.

**Even though Blue Cash only refunds you annually, Control Your Cash: Making Money Make Sense recommends it. At press time, Blue Cash gave you ½% cash back on the first $6500 you spent, 1½% beyond that.

But that was then. Today, that 1½% is 1¼%. Blue Cash does give 5% back on groceries and gasoline, which might only sway you if you categorize your spending to mesh with your card rewards. But groceries and gasoline are reasonably constant expenses for most of us.

Still, this brings up a worthwhile tangent. Would we still recommend Blue Cash?
Discover gives 1% back, in $50 increments. You’d have to spend $19,500 before Blue Cash gives you more cash back than Discover does. That could take well over a year, which is how long it takes Blue Cash to cut you a check anyway.

If that doesn’t give you a satisfactory answer, the next criterion should be convenience. (Notice we’re not even looking at interest rates. They don’t matter.) More American merchants accept Discover than American Express, but around the world, a Discover card is largely useless.

Ready for a little disclosure? Your blogger has an American Express Hilton Honors card, because a) there’s no annual fee and b) he stays in Hampton Inns a few times a month anyway. Which means I’m getting rewarded without changing my behavior to accommodate the card. (Lots of people do it the other way around.) In other words, if American Express offered a Celibacy Card or an US Weekly Subscriber’s Card, I wouldn’t be interested.

***Not sure if he’s right. Deflation is easy for the Fed to negate – just put more money in circulation. Inflation is harder to negate. And, of course, it’s open-ended. Practically speaking, deflation is limited to a few percentage points. Inflation can visit the exosphere.

Meet your role model, Part II of III (UPDATED)

Still not the correct pic. One more chance to get it right.

Last week we introduced you to Brandon, the guy who lives a rich and fulfilling life on a $32,000 salary.

Notice we didn’t remark about how well he “stretches a dollar”. Brandon isn’t one of these twits who resharpens disposable razor blades and makes his guitar strings out of dead neighborhood cats. At least, we hope not. Instead, he’s made a few forthright, intelligent decisions about how to spend and invest his money, and is sitting about as prettily as someone in his situation can.

Brandon proves that you don’t have to be born rich to avoid being poor. He buys assets, he sells (or never incurs) liabilities, and he lives better than plenty of people who make 3 times as much.

We originally planned to break Brandon’s story over 2 posts, but his methods are so detailed and his rationales so logical that we’re going to need yet another post. Read this, and sit tight for Thursday:

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I don’t do Goodwill or anything like that, maybe one day. I don’t need pricey work clothes. I do the shoe deal thing when I need shoes. You can find some great deals on shoes if you have a 5-year horizon. (Ed. Note: The man has a 5-year horizon for shoes?) I do have a couple of nice Indochino* suits**.

Last year I maxed my Roth. This year I added the 10% payroll contribution to my public employee retirement account.  I have a long-term care policy that grows by 5% a year that I’m thinking of dropping. I have paid-for whole life insurance, enough to cover all loans, funeral, etc. My grandparents took it out when I was 2.***

The key is to not use credit, and keep an eye on purchases. Self-discipline is sometimes still challenging, until I remember the sinking feeling I used to have. I was determined to never feel that way again.  I suppose I could always get a slightly better paying job, or finish my degree, but I don’t feel like I need anything more and I’m concerned I wouldn’t like my job as much.  I’m content – I travel with family and friends, save lots of my income, have fun hobbies and side jobs that don’t feel like jobs, and even enjoy my main job.  I know when I get married or have kids I’ll be set financially. We might even be able to have one parent stay at home, or fully fund colleges with the second income.  I plan on retiring early, not sure how early though – aiming for 57 if I stay with my current employer, sooner if I can take my future extra income and invest it how I want.

My favorite financial tools are Mint, SmartyPig, and auto-deductions.  It helps to impose a bit of discipline with the auto-deductions, which only takes a nudge, while making it fun and/or easy to do.  I like watching things grow toward my goals at Mint and SmartyPig.  I avoid using my debit card because I have to manually assign categories in Mint (how amusing is that excuse?), so I use my credit card for the cash back. SmartyPig gives a good return on my envelope-style accounts for various funds (property taxes, condo insurance, vacation, house maintenance, cash reserve, etc). I keep $1k in my credit union savings account, $1k-2k in my checking account.  I try to keep my cash reserve around $15k, but it’s down now because I just spent $8400 on HVAC. It won’t be back up until I get rebates in, and my maintenance fund catches up to its virtual 3-year negative. I budget 1% of my home’s purchase price annually for maintenance.

I’m a few years ahead overall, due to a $20k inheritance from my grandfather. $3k went to the cash reserve, $3500 to the HVAC install and the rest to a modest non-retirement investment. Here are my monthly expenses:

Mortgage$481
-Insurance25
-Condo fee100
-Property tax56
Utilities192
Transportation85 (includes maintenance, plates etc. I bike the 4.4 miles to work semi-regularly. Both workplaces are close to each other.)
Car insurance55
Long-term health care insurance117 (Ed. Note: this is in the event you’ll need a nursing home)
Household, including food175
Entertainment, including food110
Medical/Pharmacy/Student Loan58
TOTAL1454

And my monthly savings:

Roth IRA417
PERF 10%267
Vacation208
House maintenance fund85
TOTAL977
GRAND TOTAL2431

(Ed. Note: We didn’t ask Brandon to separate the expenses half of his personal income statement into real expenses and savings. But that he did shows that he comprehends the enormous difference between the two. Again: buy assets, sell liabilities. That starts with putting them in different tables.)

Finally, my income:

Wages, after insurance, cafeteria plan etc.1850
Rent income318
2nd wage income320
TOTAL2488

All those numbers are after-tax. The wage income excludes abnormal overtime/holidays, which usually runs $3-4k pre-tax. My total was $33k last year, $32k the previous year. Nor does that include any tax refund, (Ed. Note: sigh) mortgage interest credit, or interest income.  That adds up to a fairly conservative $4k post-tax, for Christmas charity (we stopped doing gifts) (Ed. Note: yeah!), new stuff, more vacation, extra car/house fund, savings, other investments, dinners/anniversaries/weddings/etc.

I’m honestly wondering what I’m going to do with additional income from teen court or a raise. Paying off my mortgage isn’t a bad return, but it’s not great. My work’s other retirement plans (457s) are horrid for investing in given their expense ratios. I could go into taxable accounts.  I’ll probably donate some, put some towards more exotic trips, or fund my next car.  All else being equal, I might do a mix – it won’t take that much to pay my mortgage off in 10-15 years if I wanted to, and still do the above.

*What’s Indochino?
**What’s a suit?
***Life insurance for a 2-year old? We’d love to know the grandparents’ financial situation.

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Next installment, Brandon’s investments.

**This article is featured in the Carnival of Financial Planning-Edition #157**