One More Time: Temporary Setback = Opportunity.

It’s a knight! In shining armor! Get it? Do we have to explain everything to you?

Last week we wrote about the meteor that landed on Knight Capital. If you can’t be bothered to read that post, the New York Stock Exchange’s biggest market maker endured a computer glitch that resulted in the company losing $440 million. Knight fell victim to a singular event (at least one wag actually used the term “black swan”), shrank to a third of its size overnight, and looked like it might not survive the week.

Here we have a company that

  • Provides a valuable service.
  • Is the market leader, more or less.
  • Has a solid reputation.
  • Suffered a temporary, non-lethal, inadvertent misfortune, as opposed to doing something villainous.

Knight’s stock (KCG) opened trading at $10.33 last Wednesday. The software flaw showed up immediately and was contained within 45 minutes. KCG closed the day at $6.93, opened the next morning at $3.48, reached a nadir of $2.43 late in the afternoon, and closed at $2.59.

This is what’s called a buying opportunity. KCG opened the following Friday at $3.11, closed at $4.05, and on Sunday received the $400 million cash infusion it needed to stay alive.

Who loaned them the money?

  • TD Ameritrade, one of Knight’s biggest clients.
  • Stifel Nicolas, a brokerage that sounds faintly Swiss but is actually based out of St. Louis.
  • Blackstone Group, a private equity firm.
  • General Atlantic, another private equity firm and owner of Getco (Global Electronic Trading Company), another market maker, one of 6 firms designated as such by the NYSE.
  • 2 unnamed investors, probably selfish capitalists like that job-killing tax cheat Mitt Romney.

The money comes with strings attached, of course. The lenders received something called “convertible securities”, which are bonds that will turn into stock at a certain undisclosed price. The 4 disclosed lifeguards and Mystery Firms E and F don’t make it a habit of lending money without it offering the likelihood of decent return, especially when forced to make a decision with only 2 days’ notice.

While we don’t know many more details of the deal, including the strike price of those convertible securities, the consensus belief is that it’s less than the $4.05 Knight stock ended the week at.

Here’s the type of reasoned response that makes the consistently under-water easy to distinguish from the enterprising few. From the LA Times story on Knight:

Not that internet comments are ever going to be a source of any usable knowledge, but it’s probably fair to say that COOLTUB and Highpressure’s opinions are not out of the mainstream.

The easy, effortless, simplistic, reactionary and false way to look at the Knight capital infusion is as fat cats covering for each other. The first commenter seems to think either that federal taxpayers are cutting a check to Knight, or that there isn’t a difference between that and private capital.

We don’t want to assume anything, but we’re guessing that when Magic Johnson and a handful of rich white financiers recently did the exact same thing for the Los Angeles Dodgers, COOLTUB and Highpressure were ecstatic about it.

Don’t be an idiot. How can you compare the two? The Dodgers as a team are a community icon, not just a bunch of rich guys shuffling paper.

No, they’re a bunch of rich guys swinging bats and fielding balls. The Dodgers pay an average of $3,171,452 to their top 25 employees. We don’t have a similar figure for Knight, but it’s almost certainly less.

We’re getting off track here, and we swear we didn’t start this post intending for it to turn into a sports analogy. But it’s important to remember that when a legitimate business that provides a benefit to society (in the form of liquidity) gets smacked in the mouth, it’s a chance for a sharp investor to make some money. If Knight had been charged with fraud, that’d be something vastly different, and inapplicable here.

Maybe you’re tentative, and still don’t think KCG is a good buy. Or you’re not familiar enough with the company’s stock in trade to take a position. Fine. Look around you and you’ll see opportunities daily. Seriously, daily. The local business that needs cash to expand and is looking for a silent partner. The overextended homeowner, or car owner, desperate to sell. The stock of the company that recently underwent an even less traumatic event than Knight did. (Read WSJ.com and Yahoo! Finance, just for a few minutes a day at the start. Think of it as unmarked course work for your future career in self-determination.)

You can get past the initial reluctance, the thought of “The markets? Not for me. Nothing more demanding than a conservative mutual fund in my company-directed 401(k), thanks very much.” Really, you can.

Or you can just assume that your job and its annual cost-of-living raises will help you build wealth as convincingly as seizing opportunities will. Whatever.

Knight Pun Goes Here. “Dark Knight of the Soul”, For Instance.

 

This isn’t a stock photo. It really isn’t. We’ve run similar ones before. On any given day, you can find a trader assuming this position. (Assuming a position! Another double entendre! God, we’re clever)

Knight Capital is hanging by a thread this morning. A formerly robust business, and one of the biggest players on the New York Stock Exchange.

“A Wall Street firm got screwed? Good! Serves those greedy bastards right!”, capitalist oppression, the 1%, etc., etc.

Yeah, except it’s way more complicated than that, and besides, no poor people were hurt in the making of this fiasco. You want the real story, or do you want to sit there and pretend you know what’s going on?

Knight Capital is a market maker. That means if you’ve got a certain security to buy or sell, they’ll sell it to/buy it from you, instantly. Instead of waiting on the rest of the world so you can get the price you want, you can do business with Knight and get your stock or cash at the speed of light.

A market maker does this by keeping separate bid and ask prices. They’ll buy your Baltimore Opera Hat Company stock for, say, $10 a share. At that same moment, if there’s some other investor who wants a piece of Baltimore Opera Hat, he can buy it from a market maker for…$10.05 or so.

It shouldn’t matter to a market maker whether the stock is rising or falling. If Baltimore Opera Hat shoots up in value for some reason – a hostile takeover bid, LeBron James sporting one of the company’s hats ironically at a postgame press conference – a market maker adjusts its bid and ask prices correspondingly. The more powerful a market maker’s algorithms, and the more business it does, the smaller a spread it can offer between bid and ask prices. Taken to the extreme, a cosmically large market maker could buy a security at $10, sell it at $10.0000000000001, and make a profit by sheer volume. Thus market makers do serve a legitimate purpose, letting people trade all the faster. This is a good thing.

When you do business with a market maker, you’re paying for liquidity. Are you really that set on selling your stock at $10.50, knowing it might never get that high? A market maker might drive a hard bargain, but you get your money (or stock, depending on what side of the transaction you’re on) that much more quickly.

Market makers exist with the sanction of the exchange they do business on: Knight is officially designated as a market maker by the New York Stock Exchange. Also, a particular market maker only makes markets for particular securities. You can immediately buy or sell Garmin stock via a certain market maker, say, but not Walgreens stock.

Knight’s largest customers are retail brokerages, not individual investors like you. When you execute an order through your TD Ameritrade account, TD Ameritrade will sometimes (certainly not always) go through Knight.

There are hundreds of firms that operate as market makers, and Knight is one of the biggest, handling 15% of the NYSE’s volume. Was one of the biggest, until a couple of days ago.

Wednesday morning, Knight endured a computer glitch. A bug in the software. Knight started trading stocks at 10, 20 times their normal volume, leading to a concomitant and profound change in prices. Knight’s computers were executing trades that didn’t have a real buyer or seller on the other side. Which isn’t a big deal in and of itself; Knight wasn’t taking possession of people’s actual stock and/or money at false prices, and no individual investor got screwed.

But the trades still counted, and the prices were valid throughout the market. So other firms, ones with error-free information systems, saw the price changes and handled their own trades accordingly. Here, look at the chart and see if you can tell whether Knight was a market maker for Anheuser-Busch:

Knight was forced to trade out of its erroneous positions. It lost $440 million in one day.

 

no individual investor got screwed.

 

Wait, that’s not quite true. Knight itself is a publicly traded stock. That $440 million corresponded to a similar hit in Knight’s market capitalization. The company’s value shrank by 2/3 in one day. Here’s what happened to Knight stock overnight:

Understandably, Knight’s clients stopped doing business with it. They had no choice. These are big firms, too – Vanguard, Citigroup and other investment managers.

Just because Knight’s principals and employees wear tailored suits and wing-tips, that doesn’t mean they’re crooks. Far from it. Knight handled the 45-minute glitch the best way possible, immediately halting trades and disclosing everything to their customers, the market and the exchange.

The result is that Knight needs to borrow money, and fast. The company might go bankrupt. Investors hold $375 million in convertible notes issued by Knight, and could demand their money now, given how Knight’s business has changed so abruptly so quickly. (Knight’s biggest bondholders are the actual crooks at Goldman Sachs, but that’s a different lament.) The consensus opinion is that Knight should find a buyer before things get any worse. Yes, a company whose primary service was liquidity could go under for want of its own liquidity.

Speaking of a buyer, Knight’s stock is trading at barely twice earnings. If you’re interested, you probably won’t have to wait long to have your order executed. You might not even need a market maker.

This wasn’t a fault of regulation, or lack thereof. Putting an additional 100 SEC agents on the case wouldn’t have changed a thing. It was an error without malice or criminal intent. Now, go read the comment boards on Yahoo! Finance and see the easily confused blame Knight’s downfall on everything from Mitt Romney to the U.S. military to the Illuminati.