Money Won’t Find You. You Have To Meet It Halfway.

Emulate this cat’s investment strategy, if not his look

 

The CYC principals work at home and thus employ the Fox Business Network as much of the soundtrack (and in our male half’s case, the visual stimulus) for our daily lives. While listening and desultorily watching, we hear the same corporations mentioned again and again. Lately it’s been the ones you’d expect: Facebook and its declining stock price, Apple and its historic book value, Nike (about to release an expensive new shoe), Best Buy (just hired a new CEO, the equivalent of the Doña Paz hiring a new captain after crashing into the Vector), etc.

All of them are famous, with much of the companies’ values deriving from their brand names. That’s why they’re featured so prominently in the media; or perhaps vice versa.

Name recognition is, without question, the worst possible criterion for determining the worth of a stock. In our above examples we have:

  • A pop-culture leviathan that’s effectively eliminated all its competition, and an advertising vehicle that millions of people lock their eyeballs onto daily.
  • A iconic company that not only makes elegantly designed and famously reliable gadgets and computers, but one that’s discovered how to sell slightly upgraded versions of said gadgets to the same loyal customers year after year.
  • Another icon with a devoted following (albeit slightly less devoted than Apple’s), and which, like Apple, sells a lifestyle and a state of mind as much as it sells products.
  • A retail chain whose death throes are almost audible. A decade ago, it was a legitimately cool place to buy toys: today, it’s a prehistoric version of Amazon. Or of the Apple Store.

Publicity is important for entertainers and their ilk. For corporations looking to make money in the long term (and their shareholders), being in the public eye could not be less important. Groupon has gotten more headlines than Cardinal Health every single day of the former’s existence, but it’s the latter that turned a $1 billion profit last year. And sold $100 billion worth of product (drugs, mostly). And employs 30,000 people. Cardinal Health held its initial public offering in 1983, back when Groupon’s managers and directors were barely alive. But there’s a larger point here than comparing daily deal sites to stodgy old pharmaceutical firms.

Listen. Investing is not supposed to be fun.

Check that. Investing should be lots of fun. It’s a far less laborious (and multiplicative) way to build wealth than is working for 8 hours a day. Maybe we’re unclear on how to define “fun”.

We’ve told you in the past not to buy a stock just because you happen to be a customer. But we can do better than just giving you subtractive advice, telling you what to avoid.

Embrace boredom. Invest in workable, quietly successful companies that the average mouth-breather traipsing his way down the street wouldn’t think twice about.

You know what publicly traded company has the highest profit margins? That is, among all of them? Apple is tops among the ones we’ve mentioned so far, but it’s only 24th among all public companies.

Devon Energy! You remember Devon Energy, right? Of course you don’t, you were too busy reading about that chick with the jacked-up teeth getting engaged to that Nickelback guy.

Devon Energy is a natural gas/oil producer based out of Oklahoma City. They own pipelines that are mostly in Texas but that stretch all the way to Illinois. Devon has operations as far north as the British Columbia-Northwest Territories border.

And you’ve never heard of them. The stock is trading at around $60, which is barely 10 times annual earnings. Last year each share paid 80¢ worth of dividends. Analysts think it’ll hit $77 a year from now. Both revenue and gross profit have increased 20% annually over the last few years, the kind of sustained growth that most better-publicized companies can only fantasize about.

(Notice we didn’t tell you what Devon Energy stock has done in the past year. That’s irrelevant to people who don’t own the stock, which presumably includes you.)

None of your friends will be impressed if you tell them you bought a standard lot of Devon Energy. Rather, they’ll get bored and want to leave the room. Fine. Let them.

Opportunities don’t go out of their way to get your attention. Never forget this. Facebook stock was never going to bring you untold riches. The newsworthy IPOs that would don’t exist.

What about Google?

Fine, you got us. Also, retroactively picking stocks is cheating. Google was enjoying healthy if not tropospheric profit margins from Day 1, unlike Facebook. Google was a relatively small player back then: its revenue has grown 38-fold since then, its profits 90-fold. (If you want to see how humorously ancient some business news stories from as recently as 2004 read, check this out.)

When you’re done reading Devon’s financials (a spirited way to spend a Friday afternoon), check out the public companies with the 2nd– through 5th-highest profit margins:

  • MGM Resorts, owners of half the fanciest hotels on the Las Vegas Strip, several in China and Vietnam, and a few bottom-of-the-market yet still highly profitable toilets in Detroit and on the Redneck Riviera.
  • VISA, the favorite creditor of personal finance bloggers across the country.
  • Corning, who probably made the glass your phone is encased in.
  • Gilead Sciences, makers of antiviral drugs. Tamiflu is their most famous one.

Admit it. You’ve never heard of at least one of those companies, and never gave the others a second thought.

We’re not going to do all the work for you. That’s part of the reward. Go to the general-purpose finance site of your choice (our favorite is Yahoo! Finance). Read the quarterly and annual financials, available to everyone, and take a freaking risk that your 401(k) doesn’t offer.

Columns of numbers. God, that sounds like a party.

Do you have to read interoffice memos? Or employee handbooks? Or TPS reports? What the hell’s the difference? Aside from how reading financial statements can make you money. You like money, right?

I don’t know how to interpret them.

Sure you do. Read this first.

You should all be rich, or at least upwardly mobile. The resources are at your disposal, waiting to be capitalized upon. The research is so easy even that dippy, chunky gal from So Over Debt can do it. (Mmm…dippy and chunky.) Stop reusing your paper towels and do something remunerative with your time. You’re welcome.

Look at the BIG PICTURE

 

Our generation's U.S. Steel

Slow down, already.

Yesterday, Arizona Diamondbacks left fielder Gerardo Parra went 4-for-4 against the Houston Astros, making Parra the best hitter in the world by far. He batted 1.000, or 634 points higher than Ty Cobb’s record career average. Move over, Georgia Peach, there’s a new all-time greatest: baseball’s first perfect hitter. Parra’s historic achievement will doubtless lead every sportscast across the nation and put him on the cover of Sports Illustrated and possibly Time and Newsweek.

Don’t be ridiculous. One day means nothing. Any idiot knows you can’t look at batting averages over a 4-at-bat period and determine anything meaningful.

Are you sure? Because judging from the nationwide panic over Monday’s stock market drop, the extreme short term means everything.

Our nation’s debt got downgraded Friday, for the first time in history (which is to say, 90 years.) Which presumably means the United States will have to pay higher interest rates to borrow money in the future. Those interest rates will trickle down to the institutional and consumer levels, meaning we’re all going to be paying a few basis points more. The price of money goes up, less of us can afford to borrow, and the economy will stagnate all the more.

That much is likely true. But it’s not going to happen overnight, despite what Monday’s enormous market drop would indicate. Because once again, the market followed a gigantic fall with a massive rise. It almost always happens this way.

It’s tough for the rookie investor to believe this, and it’s tough for the seasoned investor to remember it, but…

Stock prices are nothing more than opinions. They’re values attached, via crowdsourcing, to intangible pieces of dynamic, vibrant corporations.

And collective human wisdom can sometimes be extremely short-sighted.

That’s “dynamic” and “vibrant” in the literal sense of those words, rather than their modern connotations. Those corporations aren’t necessarily growing richer and more powerful every day, but rather their worths continuously fluctuate.

Think about it. On Monday the Dow dropped 634 points, one of the 10 highest absolute falls in history (relative to its level, it didn’t make the top 30.) Take a random Dow component, i.e. one of the 30 stocks whose prices comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average. (Read this if that makes no sense.) Caterpillar closed Friday at $91.09, shortly before the debt downgrade came down. CAT closed Monday at $82.60.

Step back for a minute. Does it make any kind of sense that one of America’s most venerable companies (its venerability ratified by its very place on the Dow), the world’s largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, became 10% less desirable to own in a single 8-hour period?

This is a company that grossed $14 billion in profit over the last year. CEO Doug Oberhelmen didn’t suddenly quit and name Russell Brand as his successor. The FDA didn’t find dangerous levels of peanut residue on Caterpillar’s lift trucks. For Caterpillar’s business operations, Monday was just another uneventful day.

But for Wall Street traders and their clients, news that has only an indirect impact on Caterpillar’s business has a direct impact on its stock price. The propensity of traders is to overreact. We just proved that 3 paragraphs ago: there’s no logical reason for a company to suffer a 10% drop in one day unless something cataclysmic happened to its business. Which of course, it didn’t.

On Tuesday, the day after a market sell-off that some ignorant commentators took as the precursor to brokers jumping out of windows (which never happened, not even on Black Monday in 1929), you’ll never guess what happened. The market rose historically, by 429 points. Caterpillar shares gained most of what they’d lost. Again, if you look at it with absolutely no perspective, did Caterpillar do anything to justify a 6% rise in its price, over one day? Of course not. But if you extrapolate that rise over another 10 weeks, CAT will be trading at $1455. This train’s leaving the station! Are you going to be on board?

Every time the market takes a wild daily swing, whether high (stocks just got more difficult for you to buy!) or low (your retirement account lost value!), step back. Don’t ignore the forest for the trees. Even a wild weekly swing is nothing to panic or get excited over. And maybe you should wait a couple of months before declaring a career .279 hitter with below-average power and no particular propensity for getting on base ready for the Hall of Fame.

Parra ran into a couple of pitchers having a bad night. Or perhaps he just swung, hoped for the best, and made contact via dumb luck. Or took advantage of a hungover third baseman playing out of position and begging that the ball not be hit to him. Either way, Parra is not going to be challenging Jose Reyes for a batting title on the strength of one irregular night. Nor is Caterpillar, or any other major corporation, on the brink of bankruptcy. Regardless of what your fellow investors tell you.

**This article is featured in the Totally Money Carnival #33**