Au M G!

This bears revisiting, yet again. 88 weeks ago we encouraged you to look at the “rising” price of gold from a different, opposite perspective.

Why is “rising” in quotes? Because it implies that gold is getting more expensive, when technically all it means is that it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of gold than it did previously.

No, that’s not splitting hairs. It’s a distinction with a gigantic difference. Again, it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of gold than it did previously. In other words, each dollar now buys less gold.

Why do we assume that it’s the dollar that’s the consistent source of value and the gold whose price is deviating from some norm, rather than the other way around? Especially since the supply and inherent value of gold are far less subject to political pressure and artificial maneuvering than are the supply (and inherent value) of the dollar?

We proposed that instead of quoting the price of a fixed quantity of gold in dollars, we quote the price of a dollar in the corresponding amount of gold. Hence a new makeshift currency, the Aumg (milligram of gold.)

For instance, as of this writing the price of gold is listed as $1830 per ounce. Using the reciprocal of that, a dollar is thus worth .00056 ounces of gold. Clearly ounces are unwieldy units to use here, so instead we use milligrams. There are 31,103 milligrams in a troy ounce*, therefore a dollar is worth 17 Aumg.

Which means nothing on its own. Instead we have to look at comparisons over time and across currencies.

When we first devised this idea, the dollar was trading at 30 Aumg.

Last November, it was down to 22 Aumg.

And in 1968, it was worth 883 Aumg.

It’s not as if gold suddenly got less plentiful over the last 43 years, or even the last 43 weeks. The world’s gold reserves didn’t exit the atmosphere and head for Venus. It still takes unbelievably long man-hours and prohibitively expensive capital investments for mining companies to dig gold out of the ground and turn it into something shiny and marketable. That’s part of the reason gold has been such a constant source of value throughout human history: unlike oil, natural gas, pork bellies or other commodities, the annual output of gold stays consistent (and low, especially relative to what’s already been mined.)

Dollars are a different story. First off, they’re artificial. They’re an arbitrary representation of value, created and put into circulation by a government that controls all the printing presses. Not to go Montana Freeman on you, but even the most ardent monetarist in the world would have to concede that. It’s a fact, not an opinion. And because dollars are imaginary, there’s no limit to the number of dollars the government can create. If Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke orders the Fed to create $38 octillion, it can and will. The number isn’t even limited by the amount of paper and ink available: all the Fed would have to do is increase the denominations.

Dollars are imaginary, but that doesn’t mean they’re worthless. (You can place an ad on the ControlYourCash.com sidebar, and we’ll take dollars as payment. At least for now.) But look at the numbers above if you don’t believe they’re a declining source of value.

So who cares? Prices rise, wages rise correspondingly. They’re just numbers, right? My grandparents bought a house for $40,000, but it still represented 4 years’ wages like a similar house would today. What’s the problem?

The problem is that the government owes money. Lots of it. To future retirees, to foreign governments, etc. The federal debt is the largest dollar figure regularly quoted in the media. Either those bills need to be paid, or the government must default.

Government “of, by and for the people” means that 1/300,000,000 of that debt is yours. If that sounds overwhelming, you can thank the representatives and executives you chose to represent you.

Those payments are quoted in dollars. An insolvent government has every incentive to weaken the value of each dollar it owes. It does that by printing more of them, making each dollar worth fewer and fewer Aumg.

Here’s all the proof you need that the number of dollars in circulation isn’t close to keeping pace with the gold in circulation. Those annual increases in the money supply far exceed any increases in population.

What does this mean for you? Relative to the pound, the euro, and the Canadian dollar, the U.S. dollar might stabilize. It might even increase in value. But relative to gold, wagering on the dollar is a losing bet.

Unless that federal debt gets any smaller.
(Try to contain your laughter.)

*You know that childhood brainteaser, “What weighs more, a pound of feathers or a pound of gold?” The answer is the feathers. Metals are measured in troy weight, just about everything else is measured in avoirdupois weight. An “everyday” ounce is larger than a troy ounce, and besides, there are 16 avoirdupois ounces to an avoirdupois pound as opposed to 12 troy ounces to a troy pound.

**This article is featured in Totally Money Carnival #36: Football is Back Edition**

So what does it all mean? 



A little caulking, and you can't even tell the difference

 

UPDATE 7:14 p.m. MDT: AA+, baby! First American downgrade in the 90-year history of ratings! U-S-A! U-S-A! Fortunately, the Obama Administration has unveiled the true culprit: the messenger.

A nation’s credit rating is analogous to your credit score. Pay your bills on time, never carry a balance, and your score will be near the theoretical maximum of 850. Act like the representatives and functionaries of the United States government do, and your credit rating will be closer to the theoretical minimum of 300.

The higher your score, the more credit you’re entitled to, and at lower rates. Your diligence on the front end can result in lower mortgage payments when you apply for a loan. Same goes for car financing, etc. (Not that we encourage car financing, but if you can find a rate so low that it lets you free up your own capital to be invested elsewhere at a higher rate, take it.) It’s hard to find a definitive source for this quote, but the classic line is “Credit is most available to the people who need it least.”

National credit ratings are on a different, more coarsely calibrated, non-numerical scale. The same principle is supposed to apply: the better the rating, the lower the interest rates the country can borrow at; and indirectly, the more likely it is that businesses will invest in said country. Standard & Poor’s, the biggest credit rating agency, uses the following rating scheme: AAA/AA/A/BBB/BB/B/CC. Below AAA, each rating also includes either a plus sign, or a minus sign, or nothing. Beyond that, each rating includes a terse descriptor: “positive”, “stable”, the ominous-sounding “watch negative” or “negative”. Confusing things even more, the “positive” and “negative” descriptors have nothing to do with the + or – signs found in some ratings. S&P (the same people behind the S&P 500 stock index) doesn’t rate every country in the world, because places like Tuvalu and the Vatican City don’t attract enough foreign investment to warrant anyone crunching the numbers (nor do those countries even have their own currencies.)

Standard & Poor’s does rate 128 countries, including pseudo-countries such as Abu Dhabi and Hong Kong. There are no AAA positive countries by definition, as they have nowhere to go but down. Here’s the complete list of AAA stable countries:

Australia
Austria
Canada
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Hong Kong
(but not China, which is AA- stable)
Liechtenstein
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Norway
Singapore
Sweden
Switzerland
UK/Isle of Man/Guernsey

Notice anything missing? Here’s the complete list of AAA negative countries:

United States

Which for us is historically low. Fall to the next level, AA+ stable, and we’d be sharing creditworthiness with New Zealand and closing in on Belgium.

If you’re interested, the only CC country in the world is Greece.

Therefore, it would seem, the United States’ transition from the world’s most dynamic economy to a backwater incapable of paying its bills and digging ever further into debt is  a foregone conclusion at this point. But it isn’t, and this is why:

Volume.

Let’s say you make $40,000 a year and indeed use credit as wisely and sparingly as possible. And say you somehow crack the Fair, Isaac & Co. secret formula to the point where your credit score sits at a perfect 850. You apply to your bank for a loan, primarily just to see if you can do it but also because you want to see how low an interest rate you can qualify for.

The moment after you walk in, Sergey Brin and his 849 credit score apply for a loan.

Who do you think’s going to get a loan with more favorable terms? Mr. Brin might not be quite as on top of his obligations as you are, but he’s not far behind. And he’s got far more money than you do, and far more potential for making yet more. Don’t take it personally.

On Monday the House of Representatives voted to raise the debt ceiling, leaving the Senate to rubber-stamp a similar bill Tuesday and drawing more attention to a particular vote than anything since the nationalization of health care. The nation will reach its credit limit in a few months, Congress will request another increase, and so on indefinitely. Why? Because they can. The Greeks didn’t have this luxury of preeminence, at least not in the last 25 centuries or so.

For the last few weeks we’ve been subjected to a panicked call from journalists who don’t know any better and politicians who never let a good crisis go to waste, trying to make you believe that the world economy is on a precipice. It isn’t. Economies don’t collapse overnight, and if they did it wouldn’t be because of legislative stalemate. If Standard & Poor’s and its fellow agencies Moody’s and Fitch downgrade America’s rating, it’s still going to be relatively strong. Far stronger than China’s, for instance. And we’ll still attract investment from abroad, simply from sheer size. No other country can boast 300 million first-world consumers with a relentless penchant for buying things. That’s a greater determinant of economic robustness than anything else.

That’s not to say that our economy isn’t in the toilet. Nor that our elected representatives don’t need to exercise some serious restraint. Raising the debt ceiling (to more than twice what it was during George W. Bush’s first term) only invites more opportunity to finance an already unsustainable level of government spending. But let’s call Monday’s vote to raise the debt ceiling what it was: it wasn’t a last-second attempt to right the American economy before it collapsed. It was an indirect means of letting our nation’s record debt break even more records. Greater interest payments and an economy built more on borrowing than on wealth creation? Yes, but that’s your grandkids’ problem.

**This article is featured in the Carnival of Personal Finance #322: Diminished Expectations Edition**

Independent thought

It’s a long weekend. Enjoy it, along with this correspondingly long post.

No one really enjoys writing about politics, right? Political writers are some of the wannest, most opprobrious people on the planet.

Furthermore, I (Greg) hate injecting myself into my work. If the words can’t stand alone, then I’ve selected and arranged them poorly. It’s why I usually negotiate a syntactical labyrinth to avoid using the first-person pronoun. What “I” say and am advocating is less important than objective truth.

Today’s post is a little different.

Understand that I’m as far from an anti-capitalist as it’s possible to be. My 19th century ascendants (to say nothing of my modern-day Burundian cousins) certainly enjoyed more quality family time than I do. But if that family time involves hooking up the plow to the ass, rotating the crops, hoping the loom lasts a few more months so we can make some more clothes, and washing ourselves once a week in a communal bucket of fetid water, I’ll take the meaninglessness of modern American life any day, thank you very much. Me and 6 billion other people, despite what some of them might advocate.

Yes, I read Ayn Rand in college and devoured every word. She was humorless, and had the superciliousness that God has blessed so many atheists with, but she knocked it out of the park on capitalism.

The more control politicians have over their citizens’ economic decisions, the more moribund that economy becomes. This is so obvious to me that it barely counts as an observation, but there are millions of people who still don’t get it. No elected official, regardless of his intelligence or that of the people he surrounds himself with, can think a nation (or state or city) into prosperity. An economy is simply too complex and has too many variables to be under the control of anyone or any body of officials.

Cuba has “free” health care, and Americans should be so lucky. Meanwhile, the newest car on the streets of Havana could qualify for AARP membership, questioning the government officials’ economic decisions (and the concomitant political decisions) gets you imprisoned without cable TV and an exercise room, the man in charge is the very definition of “income disparity”, and, oh yeah, people risk their lives to get out.

Meanwhile, back on the shores of the Great Satan, our congressional leaders and chief executive engineer the taking of non-figurative dollars out of tangible pockets.

But it’s laudable, because they’re doing it for you and me. The nation. Our children. Generations not yet born. This is supposed to be the Age of Irony, yet politicians still speak in the same platitudes and people still vote for them.

It’s easier to blame things on people who have actual skin in the economy, and who necessarily have less charisma than politicians whose jobs consist of smiling when necessary, looking earnest when appropriate, and reciting bromides about A Better America, Opportunity For All, and Hope And Change Moving Forward.

Last year, BP’s Tony Hayward paid with his job for his indelicacy when dealing with the sensitive ears of American news consumers. Not that Hayward is suffering – his golden parachute is so heavy it barely opened – but to what end? They could have sentenced Hayward to walk the streets of Ciudad Juarez wearing a placard that reads “Los narcotraficantes son maricas” and it wouldn’t have cleaned up the oil spill any faster.

I’d love to live in a country where John Chambers, Jeff Bezos, Sam Palmisano, Jim Skinner, Rupe Murdoch and the guy who runs Chevron comprised the president’s cabinet while Ray LaHood and Ken Salazar were in private-sector positions where they didn’t have the power to restrict rights (and responsibilities, which scare most people far more than rights interest them). But such a utopia couldn’t exist. Business geniuses have little stomach for the stifling inertia of government. Bureaucrats have even less interest in the dynamism of gambling on public taste and then creating something to sate it, while running the risk of going broke.

For instance, government mandates fuel economy standards for cars. The immediate, reactionary response is, “How you can be against that? Getting more miles per gallon is better than getting fewer miles per gallon, you tard.”

But the very act of Congress passing a law mandating fuel economy standards means that Congress is attempting to force engineering breakthroughs where none may exist. It’s like the (completely true) story about the Indiana legislature codifying the (completely false) value of π.

National fuel economy standards require that the average car sold this year average 32 miles a gallon.

a) If 32 is good, wouldn’t 300 be better? Or even a real-world 99, which is what the Yamaha YBR125ED motorcycle gets. That bike also has an engine the size of a toothpaste cap and a storage capacity best described as “wanting.” So clearly the lower that national mandate is, the deeper the administration is in bed with the petroleum industry. Or something.

b) If a manufacturer sells “too many” 4-wheel-drive SUVs, i.e. if too many consumers find them big and powerful enough to be worth buying, it’ll lower that average fuel economy and result in fines. You get penalized for making a product that lots of people want. Bureaucrats can rationalize it in terms of weaning us off foreign oil, but the result is the same – fuel economy standards send the message that the government is serious about crises both real and perceived, and the individual’s choice as an economic agent is something less important.

c) The “energy independence” argument is ridiculous, as is the “greener planet” one. Things cost what they cost. As long as I can earn a gallon of fuel for a few minutes’ work, I’ll keep buying it as a necessary expense, inelastic to the forces of aggregate supply and demand. (If I want some, I’ll buy some at the going price, and what other people do is irrelevant. Which should be the impetus behind every economic decision.) If refined petroleum really was responsible for making our planet as lifeless as Neptune, it’d cost a hell of a lot more than 3-something a gallon.

Governments decide which lifesaving drugs pharmaceutical companies are allowed to sell – because if they didn’t, apparently GlaxoSmithKline and Roche would gladly watch their customers die one by one. The government would have us believe that drug companies have no incentive to keep their clientele alive, which is why that same government needs to step in and create the Food & Drug Administration.

The FDA is responsible for countless deaths, but indirectly. No one knows who or how many died waiting years for the approval of, say, Nulojix (a newly available T-cell blocker for transplant patients whose bodies are rejecting their new kidneys.)

Dr. Thomas Sowell suggests a simple warning label that no bureaucrat prohibit pharmaceutical companies from emblazoning on its wares:

“This drug has not been approved by the FDA. Take at your own risk.”

The less personal responsibility that government functionaries can keep in the agency of its citizens, the better for that government and those functionaries.

And so to what seems like a straightforward transaction – you buy a house, a lender helps you finance the purchase, the lender gets an income stream and you get a house. Both parties win. All three parties, if you count the seller.

But with the ever-broadening and capricious hand of government sticking itself down everyone’s pants, nothing is ever that simple. That’s why government created Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, two companies who tried to achieve the never previously noted goal of “getting Americans in houses.” Those two companies represent the “secondary mortgage market” – the company who sold you your mortgage now resells it to the government, adding another layer of complexity and greater potential for fraud. And the government employee in charge of your resold mortgage has less incentive to care for it than you or your lender does.

Remember – every dollar government operates on is confiscated from somewhere. Your daily transactions, your annual tally of how much money you made – all of it goes to feed the beast. The beast does have several worthwhile purposes, the primary one being maintaining a national defense. The rest of the time, our elected bettors and their underlings are busy determining which music requires a warning label, which radio hosts are so inflammatory that they need to be fined, and which games of chance you shouldn’t play.

From a recent AP story:

“Rescuing the two mortgage giants (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac) has cost the government nearly $150 billion so far.”

“The government” isn’t some monolithic and impersonal entity, especially when it’s in debt. Because $500 of that money is yours. Could you use $500 in this economy? Especially if it was yours to begin with?

The government is supposed to operate with the consent of the governed. Sometimes that even happens. The next time you complain about how bad the economy is (which it not only is, but has been for so long that people are starting to think of a weak economy as an inevitable condition of life), remember whom you put in charge.

**This article is featured in the Yakezie Carnival: Independence Day Edition**

**This article is also featured in the Carnival of Wealth #46-July 10, 2011 Edition**